Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads Clonmel, Catterick and Southwell (AW) for his four stats-based selections on Thursday, January 11th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CLONMEL 12.25
JUMP THE SHARK (system – Gavin Cromwell handicap chase debutants)
Gavin Cromwell has a good record with his handicap chase debutants, scoring with 16 of the 71 qualifiers since the beginning of 2018 (22.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £18.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those running in Class 4 or lower company were 12 from 37 in the same period for a profit of £40.75. JUMP THE SHARK had three quick runs in non-handicap chases at the tail-end of last year and looks a likely improver now handicapping.
CATTERICK 12.45
IT’S MAISEY (system – Sue Smith, January)
Since 2014, Sue Smith is 63 from 261 (24.1%) with her runners in the month of January for a lovely profit of £159.57 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 39.59, A/E = 1.59), including a 19 from 50 haul at Catterick for a profit of £105.72. IT’S MAISEY, a winner of 2m4f on soft ground at Sedgefield in April, needed her comeback run over an inadequate 2m at Warwick in October where she finished ninth of ten and bounced back to score at odds of 12-1 at Market Rasen next time (2m7f, soft). She’s unexposed over extreme trips on deep ground and can follow up. JUST JESS also qualifies on this angle in the 1.20 race.
SOUTHWELL 2.40
BLAZING HOT (system – Hot Streak, 5f, all-weather, not Polytrack)
Progeny of the sire Hot Streak have a solid record over 5f on Tapeta or Fibresand, landing 27 of their 145 starts (18.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £119.46 to a £1 level stake at SP. BLAZING HOT contributed with aa 100-30 Southwell success on Tuesday and can follow up, despite a tricky draw in stall 1.
SOUTHWELL 3.15
SHOW NO FEAR (system – last-time out Newcastle (AW) front-runners)
It remains very difficult to win from the front on the round course (distances of 1m2f+) on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface and, since the new surface was introduced in 2016, simply backing last-time-out pacesetters next start (Flat only) would have found 89 winners from 618 bets for a profit of £116.76 to a £1 level stake at SP. SHOW NO FEAR made virtually all when scoring by five and a half lengths at Newcastle last time and the switch to Southwell’s Tapeta surface 1is unlikely to trouble him
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