Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew returns from a short break with four stats-based selections at Newcastle, Wincanton and Kempton on Saturday, January 6th. Our stats guru is taking a short break and his next column will be on Saturday, January 6th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
WINCANTON 12.55
FRESH KISS (system – Zarak, turf)
Progeny of the sire Zarak have a 25 from 117 record on turf (Flat and jumps) in Britain/Ireland for a profit of £151.81 to a £1 level stake at SP. Jamie Snowden’s French import FRESH KISS, a four-time winner on the Flat in her native land, can make a winning start for new connections in this mares’ novices’ hurdle.
NEWCASTLE 1.40
KONFUSION (system – Sue Smith, January)
Since 2014, Sue Smith has a 63 from 259 record with her runners in the month of January for a profit of £161.57 to a £1 level stake at SP. KONFUSION, the mount of Nick Schofield. Placed twice on good ground last summer, and should cope with the soft ground on breeding.
NEWCASTLE 2.50
GREAT RAFFLES (system – Micky Hammond/Emma Smith-Chaston trainer/jockey combination)
Emma Smith-Chaston has a 45 from 278 record when riding for her boss Micky Hammond for a profit of £54.97 to a £1 level stake at SP. She drew a blank in two rides at Musselburgh yesterday, but both ran third, including a 66-1 shot in a big field. GREAT RAFFLES is her sole mount for the yard today and the right-year-old, who would have needed his chase/seasonal debut when last of four here in mid-December, should know more this time.
KEMPTON 6.15
PERSIAN BLISS – (System – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Owners Amo Racing have a very useful record with newcomers, scoring with 40 of the 178 qualifiers (22.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £40.98 to a £1 level stake at SP. PERSIAN BLISS, a half-brother to three winners, looks well drawn on his debut and the son of Advertise can provide in-form jockey Billy Loughnane yet another winner.
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