Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Fakenham, Ayr and Wolverhampton (AW) for his four stats-based picks on Tuesday, January 2nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
FAKENHAM 12.30
ÉCLAIR DE GUYE (system – Lucy Wadham, Fakenham)
Backing Lucy Wadham-trained runners at Fakenham has been a profitable angle this century, with 65 winners from 255 bets (25.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £51.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. ÉCLAIR DE GUYE’s two previous runs had this track resulted in unplaced efforts but the first came in a 2m bumper and the other in a 2m5f handicap chase, which was far from ideal for this dour stayer. Today’s 3m5f trip in on soft ground looks ideal, as is the small field, and he’s worth a small interest at a big price (8-1 best at the time of writing).
AYR 1.15
BARNEY STINSON (system – Fame And Glory, jumps, 8yo+)
Progeny of Fame And Glory tend to need time and backing those aged eight or older under national hunt rules in Britain/Ireland would have found 62 winners from 478 bets (13% strike-rate) for a profit of £92.71. BARNEY STINSON won here at Ayr just 12 days before high eighth Birthday and can follow up.
AYR 2.15
AUBIS WALK (system – Ayr chases, won an Ayr chase last time out)
Last-time out Ayr chase winners have a good record when bidding to follow up in another chase at the same venue, landing 28 of their 81 starts (34.6%) since the beginning of 2010 for a profit of £45.99 to a £1 level stake at SP. AUBIS WALK jumped/travelled well when making a winning debut over fences here last month and can maintain his 100% record over the larger obstacles.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30
ZOLA POWER (system – older handicappers in first-time hood, Flat)
Since the beginning of 2017, backing handicappers in a first-time hood on the Flat (turf or all-weather), aged three or older, would have found 18 winners from 112 bets (16.1%) for a profit of £74.45. ZOLA POWER, who makes his debut for Mick Appleby (another positive punting angle), is worth chancing to get off the mark.
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