As we welcome in 2024 horse racing fans are hitting the ground running with racing at Prestbury Park – the home of jumps racing. And you can use our key Cheltenham trends and stats for the main New Year’s Day ITV races to help narrow down your search for the winners.
Cheltenham Trends On New Year’s Day 2024
There are five LIVE ITV races at Cheltenham this New Year’s Day, but with two of these newer races there are no real trends that have built up.
The good news though is we’ve still three stalwart races at this popular meeting with plenty of back history to look at. Including the Relkeel Hurdle at 3:15pm – a race that last year’s winner Marie’s Rock will be popular with the best UK horse racing betting sites.
2.05 – Paddy Power New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f166y ITV
All eyes here will be on the Paul Nicholls-trained Stage Star, who is 3-from-3 over fences at Cheltenham, and impressed when winning the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the track last time out.
The trends tell us past Cheltenham experience and winning form is a plus – something Stage Star has in abundance.
With 80% of the last 20 winners priced 10/1 or shorter it’s a race that punters tend to get right, with the favourite having a 25% strike-rate in the race too.
Trainer Venetia Williams won this in 2019 and has Frero Banbou this year, while it’s been a kind race for the Nigel Twiston-Davies team with four wins in the last nine. They run Torn And Frayed.
Overall though the Cheltenham trends suggest Stage Star, who is already well-fancied for the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, has a lot going for him.
- 20/20 – Raced over fences at Cheltenham
- 19/20 – Ran within the last 2 months
- 17/20 – Won at least twice over fences
- 17/20 – Won over 2m4f or further (fences)
- 16/20 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
- 16/20 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 16/20 – Either French (6) or Irish (10) bred
- 15/20 – Rated 138 or higher
- 14/20 – Aged 8 or older
- 14/20 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
- 13/20 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
- 12/20 – Won over fences at Cheltenham
- 11/20 – Favourites unplaced
- 11/20 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
- 11/20 – Unplaced last time out
- 10/20 – From the top 3 in the betting
- 5/20 – Favourites
- 4/20 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (4 of the last 9)
- 1/20 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival
2.40 – Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m ITV
This handicap hurdle has been won 79% of the last 19 times by horses aged between 5-7, while it’s another contest that proven track form is a must-have. With 74% running at Prestbury Park in the past and 26% winning there.
Trainer Olly Murphy won the race in 2020 and has a live chance of adding to that with Butch, who has won his last two at Southwell and here at Cheltenham.
The Cheltenham trends also point towards horses rated 130+ with 68% of the last 19 ticking this stat. It’s also a race that 11 of the last 19 winners went onto run at the Festival, with Buck Big’s the big name to have won this in 2009 and then follow-up in the Stayers’ Hurdle.
- 17/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
- 15/19 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
- 15/19 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m4f
- 14/19– Raced at Cheltenham before
- 14/19 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK
- 13/19 – Rated 130 or higher
- 12/19 – Unplaced in last race
- 11/19 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
- 11/19 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
- 11/19 – Carried 10-9 or more in weight
- 9/19 – Favourites unplaced
- 9/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
- 8/19 – Won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
- 8/19 – French bred
- 5/19 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham
- 5/19 – Won last race
- 4/19 – Favourites
- 1/19 – Won by a mare
- 1/19 – Went onto win the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season (Big Buck’s, 2009)
3.15 – Dornan Engineering Relkeel Hurdle Cl2 2m4f110y ITV
We could see Bob Olinger heading over from the Henry De Bromhead camp as he bids to add the Relkeel Hurdle to his lucky Turners Novices’ Chase in 2022 at the Festival. He showed guts to win at Navan in November to get the better of Zanahiyr by a length. He’ll be looking to become the first Irish-trained winner since Stormy Ireland in 2022.
Last year’s winner Marie’s Rock is back for more too and will get a handy 7lb mares’ allowance from the males in the race. She does, however, need to bounce back from an average 4th in the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury last time – looking in need of the run.
The last horse to win the Relkeel back-to-back was Oscar Whisky (2011 & 2012), who was also trained by the five-time winner of the race Nicky Henderson.
With 63% of the last 19 winners coming from the top 3 in the betting, this is another race the punters are not too far off the mark in. With 37% winning favourites during that period too.
Horses Aged 8 or Younger Have The Best Relkeel Hurdle Record
However, the key Relkeel Hurdle trend to note is the age – as since the race was first run in 1988, we’ve only seen one winner aged 9 or older, which was Rock On Ruby in 2014. This would be a potential negative for the two main players – Bob Olinger and Marie’s Rock, who are both aged 9.
- 18/19 – Aged 8 or younger
- 17/19 – Won by either a French (6) or Irish (11) bred
- 16/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
- 16/19 – Went on run at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
- 15/19 – Ran at Cheltenham before (note, 2021 running was at Kempton)
- 13/19 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles)
- 13/19 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
- 13/19 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles
- 12/19 – From the top 3 in the betting
- 11/19 – Won at Cheltenham before
- 9/19 – Went onto run in the Stayers’ Hurdle later that season
- 7/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
- 7/19 – Favourites
- 7/19 – Won last race
- 5/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
- Marie’s Rock (11/2) won the race in 2022
Note: The 2021 running was staged at Kempton
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