Chelsea’s expected goals (xG) stats are among the best in the Premier League this season, and yet they are languishing in mid-table having struggled throughout 2023.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side have won 15 games on xG this season, more than any other Premier League team. And yet they have only won seven actual matches, losing eight and drawing four.
They climbed back into the top half of the Premier League thanks to Wednesday’s 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge, but their form in 2023 has been woeful and they are a mile away from the Champions League places.
Of the 17 teams to have been in the top flight throughout the calendar year, Chelsea rank 15th. They have picked up just 45 points from 42 games in 2023 – no side has picked up fewer points after as many games in the league this year.
And one of their biggest issues has been the difference in Chelsea’s expected goals compared to how many they are actually scoring.
Chelsea have won 15 games out of 19 on xG this season, more than any other Premier League team.
MISSING CHANCES 🤔 pic.twitter.com/8oi9A9mQRD
— Solomon Adusei Peprah (@Curtis_peprah) December 28, 2023
What Is xG?
Expected goals, often referred to as simply xG, is a metric designed to measure the probability of a shot resulting in a goal.
The xG model uses information on thousands of similar shots and chances to estimate the likelihood of a goal being scored, on a scale of 0-1.
For example, for a shot valued at 0.5 xG, you would generally expect a goal to be scored once in every two attempts.
And herein lies the issue for Mauricio Pochettino. Chelsea’s expected goals are currently 40.39, the third-highest in the Premier League. But the actual number of goals scored by Chelsea so far is only 31.
Still the eighth most in the league, but a huge difference from their expected goals. The difference between expected and actual goals for Chelsea at the moment is 9.39. Only Everton have missed their expected tally by a bigger margin, with 9.43 less than expected.
The same issue arises on the other side of the ball, too. Chelsea’s expected goals against are only 27.93, but they have let in 29 to date. While nowhere near as alarming as their goals for stat, the combination of both goes a long way to explaining their poor results this season.
Chelsea’s Goalscoring Problems
Chelsea’s expected goals may not be a problem, but real ones have been. Despite spending more than £1 billion on transfers since Todd Boehly took control of the club last year, they have nobody they can rely on consistently.
Currently, their top scorer in the Premier League is Nicholas Jackson, with seven. But for a club like Chelsea, seven goals in 18 games is not good enough for a main striker.
They have therefore had to share goalscoring responsibilities around the squad. Few would have expected 18-year-old Cole Palmer to be the club’s second highest scorer in all competitions.
But the youngster has six so far since joining from champions Manchester City in the summer. Out of favour England star Raheem Sterling is the only other Chelsea player with at least five goals this season.
There is clearly no lack of creativity at the club, with the side manufacturing plenty of scoring opportunities. But unless they can begin taking them, it will continue to be a long and painful season for them.
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