Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Catterick, Limerick and Newcastle (all-weather) for three stats-based picks on Thursday, December 28th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CATTERICK 12.30
TRAC (system – Micky Hammond/Emma Smith-Chaston combination)
Emma Smith-Chaston has a solid record when riding for her boss, Micky Hammond, scoring on 42 of her 267 mounts (15.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £52.35 to a £1 level stake at SP. TRAC, runner-up at Sedgefield last time, has second (inn this race last year) and first in his two previous runs at Catterick and should be thereabouts once more.
LIMERICK 3.15
SHOTGUN JACK (system – 3m+ handicap hurdles, won last time out, speed angle)
Last time out winners who recorded a Proform speed figure of at least 67 have a fine record when contesting handicap hurdles over a distance of 3m or further, landing 128 of their 467 starts (27.4%) since the beginning of 2012 for a profit of £137.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. SHOTGUN JACK, who bolted up in a 3m handicap hurdle at Galway on his penultimate start, defied a 14lb ratings hike in similarly facile fashion over 2m5f at today’s venue next time and another 12lb rise is unlikely to prevent him from completing his hat-trick.
NEWCASTLE 6.00
FILLY ONE (system – Newcastle AW debut winners)
Horses who make winning racecourse debuts on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface have a fine record when bidding to follow up, landing 50 of their 146 starts (34.3%) for a profit of £22.60 (expected winners = 39.17, A/E = 1.28). Those who started at odds of 5-1 or bigger for that debut success were 23 from 63 for a profit of £42.15. FILLY ONE caused a 40-1 shock in a 6f fillies’ novice contest here last month, beating the William Haggas-trained favourite into second place, and can follow up.
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