Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has six stats-based selections at Aintree, Wetherby, Fontwell, Sedgefield and Wolverhampton on Boxing Day (Tuesday, December 26th). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
WETHERBY 12.27
TOM CODY (system – Rebecca Menzies, jumps handicaps, December to January)
Rebecca Menzies has a cracking record with her handicap chasers/hurdlers at this time of year, scoring with 55 of her 280 (18.9%) runners in December/January for a profit of £136.38 (expected winners = 36.02, A/E = 1.47). TOM CODY contributed with a comfortable success at Newcastle last time on what was only his third run for the yard and can follow up.
AINTREE 12.30
IBLEO (system – Venetia Williams, handicap chasers in December)
In-form Venetia Williams has a fine record with her handicap chasers in the month of December, scoring with 146 of the 704 qualifiers this century (20.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £90.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. Top weight IBLEO has been off the track for a massive 991 days but her yard landed one of these veterans’ handicap chases with the same owners’ Cepage recently and the fact that connections have persevered after such a long absence speaks volumes.
WETHEBY 1.00
ELOGIO (system – Tom Lacey, handicap hurdles)
Simply backing all Tom Lacey-trained runners in handicap hurdles would have found 123 winners from 565 bets (21.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £138.48 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 94.17, A/E = 1.31). ELOGIO failed to handle right-handed Ascot when only fifth of nine on his latest assignment and will be happier back at today’s left-handed venue.
FONTWELL 1.42
DUSKY DAYS (system – Jamie Snowden, young handicap chasers)
Jamie Snowden does well with his young handicaps chasers (aged six or less) who are making their chase or having only their second run over fences. Since the beginning of 2014, he’s scored with 28 of the 103 qualifiers (27.2%) for a profit of £37.36 and DUSKY DAYS, who went down by just a length and a half in third place at Hereford on last month’s seasonal/chase debut, can go two places better.
WOLVERHAMPTON 1.50
WRESTLING REVENUE (system – Mehmas, all-weather nurseries)
WRESTLING REVENUE showed some ability in five turf starts in Ireland, notably when a 25-1 fourth of 11 at Naas on his second outing, and he looks interesting now making his all-weather debut on his first run for Tony Carroll. Progeny of Mehmas have a good record in all-weather nurseries, landing 23 of their 125 starts (18.4%) for a profit of £85.54 to a £1 level stake at SP.
SEDGEFIELD 2.00
MOTHILL (system – Neil Mulholland, Sedgefield handicaps)
Neil Mulholland has won with 18 of his 50 handicappers at Sedgefield, scoring with 18 of the 50 qualifiers for a profit of £17.99, and it looks significant that MOTHILL makes the long journey north from Wiltshire. The five-year-old was a winner at Uttoxeter when last racing over hurdles and has only gone up 3lb.
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