Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew signs off for Christmas with four stats-based picks at Newcastle, Lingfield and Haydock on Saturday, December 23rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
NEWCASTLE 12.30
BATMAN FOR EVER (system – Rebecca Menzies, jumps handicappers, December-January)
Rebecca Menzies has a good record with her handicap hurdlers/chasers at this time of year (December or January), scoring with 62 of the 277 qualifiers (18.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £129.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. BATMAN FOR EVER, one of four qualifiers running today, didn’t show much last season after leaving France but would have needed time to acclimatise to his new surroundings and can take a step forward.
LINGFIELD 1.25
TWIRLING (system – Simon & Ed Crisford, handicap debut, Lingfield all-weather)
The Crisfords have a cracking record with handicap debutants, especially on Lingfiield’s Polytrack, scoring with five of the seven qualifiers for a profit of £10.73. The beaten horses both finished second (5-1 and 5-2) and, though a short price, it’s hard to look past TWIRLING, winner of two of her three starts in fillies’ novice company at Kempton.
NEWCASTLE 2.15
FAITHFULFLYER (system – Sandy Thomson, winter runners)
Since 2012, Sandy Thomson is 103 from 520 (19.8%) with his runners in November December and January for a profit of £261.73 to the usual £1 level stake at SP. FAITHFULFLYER disappointed when favourite at Musselburgh last time, finishing tenth of 13, but failed to settle and jumped poorly. That was only the second time from nine attempts that he’s finished outside the first three in handicap company and he’s worth chancing to bounce back.
HAYDOCK 2.40
BYTHESAMETOKEN (system – Fame And Glory, 8yo+)
Jumps progeny of Fame And Glory tend to improve with age and backing the eight and nine-year-olds (the sire’s oldest crop) would have found 61 winners from 463 bets (13.2%) for a profit of £103.38. Irish raider BYTHESAMETOKEN only went down by half a length in second place at Down Royal last time and can go one better.
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