Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Aintree, Navan, Newcastle and Wolverhampton for his five stats-based picks on Saturday, December 9th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
AINTREE 12.20
HARPER VALLEY (system – Rebecca Menzies, jumps handicaps, December-January)
In-form Rebecca Menzies has a fine record with her jumps handicappers in the months of December and January, scoring with 50 of the 264 qualifiers (19% strike-rate) for a profit of £137.94 to a £1 level stake at SP. HARPER VALLEY, who scored narrowly at Sedgefield when making his handicap debut on November 29th, is taken to follow up.
NAVAN 1.42
BEACON EDGE (system – 3m+ handicap hurdles, last-time out winners, speed angle)
Last-time out winners who recorded a Proform speed figure of 67 or higher for that victory have a good record when bidding to follow up, landing 128 of their 464 starts (27.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £140.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. BEACON EDGE clocked a fast time when scoring on his debut for Gordon Elliott at Thurles in October and can follow up.
AINTREE 3.15
BENSON (system – Sandy Thomson, winter runners)
Since 2012, Sandy Thomson has a 101 from 504 record with his runners during the November to January period for a profit of £259.98 to a £1 level stake at SP. BENSON could only finish a modest fourth at Carlisle on his comeback in mid-October but his stable was out of form at the time and his saddle slipped. The eight-year-old finished a narrow second in this race 12 months ago and can again justify each-way support.
NEWCASTLE 5.45
WALTER MITTY (system – Michael Dods, second-time out 2yos)
The Michael Dods-trained WALTER MITTY could only finish a 28-1 seventh of nine over course and distance on his debut last month but that run was clearly needed and he should do better this evening. Since 2012, his trainer is 41 from 254 (16.1%) with his second-time out juveniles for a profit of £55.22 and he can reward each-way support despite a tricky draw in stall 2.
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.00
BEYOND WORDS (system – James Tate/Ross Ryan combination, all-weather)
James Tate and Rossa Ryan are 20 from 61 (37.3%) when combining n the all-weather for a profit of £48.79 to a £1 level stake at SP. In non-handicaps, the score is 15 from 34 (44.1%) for a profit of £57.92. BEYOND WORDS was sent off as the 15-8 favourite for her debut at Newcastle on October 6th but missed the break, ran green and hung left under pressure on her was to a five-length sixth of eight. She’ll improve markedly for that experience and can get off the mark tonight.
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