Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found Tramore winner KINGS HALO on Tuesday has three stats-based picks at Hereford on Wednesday, November 29th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
HEREFORD 12.20
MAC’S LEGACY (system – Fame And Glory, first-time cheekpieces)
Progeny of Fame And Glory have a useful record when wearing first-time cheekpieces over hurdles/fences, with 23 winners from 125 runners (18.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £12.10 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 15.61, A/E = 1.47) and MAC’S LEGACY might be able to take a step forward now fitted with the headgear for his second start over hurdles. The Rebecca Menzies-trained six-year-old hinted at ability in his two bumper outings and can be forgiven a heavy defeat on his hurdles debut as he jumped poorly on heavy ground at Chepstow. Today’s better ground should help, and this race won’t take a great deal of winning.
HEREFORD 2.35
FLIGHT OF FREEDOM (system – Emma Lavelle, handicap hurdle debutants, finished first or second last time out)
Emma Lavelle does well with her handicap hurdle debutants, especially those who ran first or second in their latest start, scoring with 17 of the 71 qualifiers (23.9%) for a profit of £47.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. FLIGHT OF FREEDOM, a good-ground winner in a mares’ novice hurdle at Warwick on her penultimate start, found Alan King’s gelding Favour And Fortune (winner again since) 13 lengths too good when runner-up here last time and will be happier back against her own sex on her handicap debut. The step up to 2m3.5f should also suit.
HEREFORD 3.10
PASEO (system – Venetia Williams, handicap chasers in November)
This century, in-form Venetia Williams has a 126 from 629 record (20% strike-rate) in handicap chases in the month of November for a huge profit of £203.59 to a £1 level stake at SP. PASEO is hardly prolific but his sole win for his current yard came on his reappearance last term and first-time out might be when to catch him.
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