Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the jumps meetings at Sedgefield, Southwell and Tramore for his three stats-based picks on Tuesday, November 28th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
SEDGEFIELD 1.50
DR SANDERSON (system – J P McManus-owned low-grade jumps handicappers in Britain)
Owner J P McManus is better known for big-race success, but he also does well at the basement end in British jumps handicaps. This century, backing all the hurdlers/chasers in Class 5 handicaps would have found 121 winners from 569 bets (21.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £133.87 to a £1 level stake at SP. Ben Haslam’s score is 20 from 82 (+£76.87) and his DR SANDERSON will appreciate the drop from Class 4 level in this 2m1f handicap chase. The nine-year-old has only had two previous runs in this company and won them both, albeit back in 2018.
SOUTHWELL 2.50
MISS ARABELLA (system – Sandy Thomson winter runners)
Sandy Thomson had a quiet start to the current season, but he broke a losing run of 23 when Blue Baloo ran out a well-backed winner (3-1 from 11-2) at Newcastle last Thursday. He added another 3-1 winner at Catterick 24 hours later and the yard looks to have turned the corner. This is usually a good time to side with the trainer and, since 2012, had we backed all his runners in November December and January we’d have won 101 of our 499 bets (20.2% strike-rate) and made a very healthy profit of £264.98 to a £1 level stake at SP. MISS ARABELLA failed to convince in the jumping department on her recent hurdling debut but there were more positives than negatives to take from her 80-1 sixth of 12 and she looks a likely improver this afternoon.
TRAMORE 3.00
KINGS HALO (system – Fame And Glory, jumps, 8yo+)
Jumps progeny of Fame And Glory tend to improve with age and had we backed all the sire’s eight and nine-year-olds (his oldest crop) we’d have won 59 of our 445 bets (13.3% strike-rate) and made a profit of £100.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. Eight-year-old KINGS HALO found the 2m1f trip too sharp when only fifth on his comeback run and then went close (second by a neck) when returned to fences and upped to 2m4.5f at Clonmel. His jumping wasn’t foot-perfect but he’s worth a bet to break his chase duck in this 2m5f contest.
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