Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Lingfield, Wetherby and Cheltenham for his three stats-based picks on Saturday, November 18th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LINGFIELD 11.45
ISLAND NATIVE (system – Mick Appleby, stable switchers)
Mick Appleby has a fine record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, scoring with 96 of the 553 qualifiers (17.4% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £304.52. ISLAND NATIVE, gelded since going close at Wolverhampton on his final start for Heather Main, can make a winning start for his new connections.
WETHERBY 1.19
MOLLY OLLYS WISHES (system – Dan Skelton, first-time cheekpieces, fifth or worse last time out)
Dan Skelton, like his mentor Paul Nicholls, has a god record when using first-time cheekpieces and the value lies in backing those who disappointed on their latest start (defined as finishing fifth or worse). He’s won with 21 of the 91 qualifiers (23.1%) for a profit of £70.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. MOLLY OLLYS WISHES, eighth of 14 at Chepstow on her comeback, has won in first-trime headgear before (tongue-tie) and is taken to bounce back to form.
CHELTENHAM 2.55
COME ON TEDDY (system – Fame And Glory, 8yo+)
Older jumps progeny of Fame And Glory have a fine record, with those aged eight and above landing 56 of their 434 starts (12.9%) for a profit of £86.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. FOXY JACKS (9-1) was a winner on this angle at Cheltenham on Friday and perhaps COME ON TEDDY can follow suit. The Tom George-trained nine-year-old was pulled up in the 2022 Kim Muir when we last saw him but runs well when fresh and loves soft ground. He was placed in the 2021 Pertemps Final when last running at Cheltenham over hurdles and is 2lb lower today.
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