Use our Melbourne Cup trends for the 2023 race to find the best horse profiles based on past winners. You can then use these Melbourne Cup stats to whittle down the 24 runners and find the best horses that have history on their side.
For example – we’ve seen only three winning Melbourne Cup favourites in the last 19 runnings and 89% of winners over that period also came from stalls 5 or higher – two big stats against the hot market leader Vauban.
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Melbourne Cup 2023 Date and Time
📅Date: Tuesday, 7th November 2023
🕙Time: 4am (UK) or 3pm (Australian AEDT Time)
🏇Racecourse: Flemington
💰 Winner: £2,485, 876
📺 TV: Sky Racing
Melbourne Cup Trends and Stats For 2023
See below our Melbourne Cup trends for the last 19 years of the Flemington Park race and, as you can see, there’s many standout stats building up for the contest billed as ‘The Race That Stops a Nation’.
- 19/19 – Won a Group class race before
- 17/19 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
- 17/19 – Won 8 or fewer races before
- 16/19 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
- 16/19 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
- 16/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
- 16/19 – Raced at Geelong (2), Flemington (3), Caulfield (4) or Moonee Valley (7) last time
- 13/19 – Aged 5 or older
- 13/19 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
- 13/19 – Rav at Flemington Park before (8 won there)
- 13/19 – Placed in the top 3 in last race
- 13/19 – Raced within the last 2 weeks
- 12/19 – Won by a AUS-based horse
- 11/19 – Aged 6 or older
- 10/19 – pRICED12/1 or shorter in the betting
- 10/19 – Horses from stall 10 or 11 placed
- 9/19 – Had won over 1m7f or further before
- 9/19 – Won by a 6 year-old
- 9/19 – Placed favourites
- 6/19 – European winners
- 5/19 – Won just once before
- 4/19 – Won last time out
- 4/19 – Ran in a past Melbourne Cup
- 3/19 – Mare winners
- 3/19 – Favourites
- 3/19 – English/Irish winners
- 2/19 – French-trained winners
- The average winning SP in the last 19 renewals is 18/1
Melbourne Cup Fact: Trainer Bart Cummings has won the Melbourne Cup 12 times
The Melbourne Cup is run each year on the first Tuesday in November and is billed as ‘The Race That Stops a Nation’.
It’s run over 2 miles, it’s the richest handicap run over this distance in the world and this year will be run a tad later with the first Tuesday in the month falling on November 7th.
Flemington racecourse in Melbourne (Australia) always plays host to the horse race and last year the winner Gold Trip banked a cool £2,540,322.58.
It goes without saying the home-based Australian yards have a fine record – winning 12 of the last 19. However, in more recent times we’ve seen winners for Ireland and England with the Charlie Appleby team winning with Cross Counter (2018) and Joseph O’Brien mopping up two wins with Rekindling (2017) and Twilight Payment (2020)
What Are The Best Melbourne Cup Trends To Look For?
See below the main Melbourne Cup trends to apply to the 2023 race. Apply these to the 24 Melbourne Cup 2023 runners to find the best profiles based on past winners.
Look For Horses Draw 5 Or Higher
You’d think that being run over 2m then the draw wouldn’t have a big part. Wrong.
Getting a good early position in the race and having the option to save ground and also avoid any traffic issues – don’t forget there are 24 runner – can be the difference between winning and losing.
This has been backed up over the years with 89% of the last 19 Melbourne Cup winners coming from stalls 5 or higher. Meaning history tells us to ignore the horses drawn 1,2,3,4 – one of which is the hot favourite Vauban, who is drawn 3.
The others drawn low are the former Epsom Derby hero Serpentine (1), last year’s winner Gold Trip 2, and Soulcombe 3.
We can also drill further into the draw stat, with 13 of the last 19 winner coming from gates 9 or higher.
You can see what Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci think about the draw of Vauban here.
84% Of The Last 19 Winners Aged Between 4-6
In terms of age 16 of the last 19 winners were aged between 4 and 6 years-old. But a small note here as we are using the UK ages – in Australia their racehorses birthdays are updated in August each year, whereas in the UK it’s on January the first.
Notable horses aged 7 or older in the race this year are Vow and Declare and Ashrun.
We’ve also seen 13 of the last 19 winners aged 5+ and 11 of those were 6 or older.
16 Of The Last 19 Melbourne Cup Winners Ran In The Last 4 Weeks
Coming into the race fit and match-fit from a recent run is another thing to note. 84% of the last 19 winners ran in the last 4 weeks, while 13 of the last 19 were in action on the track within the last two weeks.
Horses like, Absurde, Lastotchka and the big favourite Vauban, who last ran 92 days ago, have this to overcome.
Just 3 Winning Favourites Since 2004
Another stat for those looking to take Vauban on with is that we’ve only seen three winning favourites since 2004.
With the most recent coming back in 2013 when Fiorente won for the Gai Waterhouse camp.
Look For A Recent Run At Geelong, Flemington, Caulfield or Moonee Valley
Another big Melbourne Cup trend to look for is where your horse ran last. A massive 16 of the last 19 (84%) raced at Geelong, Flemington, Caulfield or Moonee Valley last time out.
Six European Winners Since 2004
Finally, despite the home horses having a top record in the race, the tide has turned a bit in more recent years with five European winners of the race since 2004.
Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien has been responsible for two of those, with Twilight Payment (2020) and Rekindling (2017), while Charlie Appleby took the race for Godolphin in 2018 with Cross Counter.
We’ve also had a German winner in 2014 with Ryan Moore steered home Protectionist for the Wohler yard, plus two French winners with Dunaden (2011) and Americain (2010)
Melbourne Cup Betting 2023
See below the latest betting ahead of the Melbourne Cup 2023 (prices from BetMGM)
- Vauban 9/4
- Gold Trip 4/1
- Without A Fight 11/2
- Soulcombe 8/1
- Absurde 14/1
- Breakup 14/1
- Future History 20/1
- Lastochka 20/1
Odds are subject to change and other on request.
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Recent Melbourne Cup Winners
- 2022 – GOLD TRIP (20/1)
- 2021 – VERRY ELLEEGANT (17/1)
- 2020 – TWILIGHT PAYMENT (25/1)
- 2019 – VOW AND DECLARE (10/1)
- 2018 – CROSS COUNTER (8/1)
- 2017 – REKINDLING (14/1)
- 2016 – ALMANDIN (10/1)
- 2015 – PRINCE OF PENZANCE (100/1)
- 2014 – PROTECTIONIST (7/1)
- 2013 – FIORENTE (6/1 fav)
- 2012 – GREEN MOON (19/1)
WATCH: Gold Trip Winning The 2022 Melbourne Cup
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