Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to York and Chepstow for his four stats-based selections on Friday, October 13th. Please note our statistical guru is taking a short break and his column will return on Thursday, October 19th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
YORK 2.40
TONY MONTANA (system – Michael Bell, gelded since last run, handicaps)
Since the beginning of 2010, backing all Michael Bell-trained handicappers on their first run after a gelding operation would have found 27 winners from 129 bets (21% strike-rate) for a profit of £62.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. TONY MONTANA, who also makes his stable debut after leaving the Gosdens, could be worth a speculative punt in this 1m6f handicap.
YORK 3.15
AFRICAN SPIRIT (system – Newcastle (AW) debut winners, next time out)
All-weather form still tends to be overlooked by the betting markets and one simple angle is to back Newcastle debut winners on their next outing. This system has produced 49 winners from 144 bets (34% strike-rate) for a profit of £23.03 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 37.44, A/E = 1.27). The bulk of the profits came from those runners switching to turf and AFRICAN SPIRIT, who bolted up by five lengths on last month’s debut, can maintain his 100% record despite a tricky draw. The son of Showcasing is bred to appreciate any rain that falls.
CHEPSTOW 3.23
CHIANTI CLASSICO (system – Kim Bailey chasers, first run after a wind operation)
Kim Bailey does well with his chasers on their first run back following wind surgery, scoring with ten of the 38 qualifiers for a small profit of £3.44 to a £1 level stake at SP, improving to eight from 19 (+£12.21) for those who started in the first three in the betting. CHIANTI CLASSICO has form figures below Graded level, including his point-to-point form, of 121111 (5-6) and should give a good account on his Rules chase debut.
YORK 4.25
CALL GLORY (system – Mick Appleby, stable switchers)
Mick Appleby is 96 from 547 (17.6%) at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £310.52 to a £1 level stake at SP. CALL GLORY won at Chelmsford last time and his new yard is 2-3 with ex-Charles Hills runners (winners at 9-2 and 7-2).
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