Although the ‘expected goals’ metric doesn’t paint the whole picture in front of goal, it is a solid measure of chance creation and the threat a given team can pose. With domestic football now on pause for the second international break, we are looking to see who has the highest xG in the Premier League so far this season.
- Using football analytics database Understat, SportsLens has collated xG (expected goals) data for each Premier League team
- Manchester United sit outside the top 10, while league leaders Tottenham only manage to rank fourth
Highest xG in the Premier League – 2023/24
10. Brentford
Brentford have actually conceded more goals than they have scored this season, which is slightly out of character for the Bees.
Since a convincing win against Fulham towards the end of August, they have gone on to register a five-game winless run which has undone all their positive work at the start, and sees them 15th in the table.
They are underperforming on their overall xG by a total of 3.39, and are becoming increasingly desperate to welcome last season’s top scorer Ivan Toney back in January – how long he stays put at the club after remains to be seen.
- Goals Scored: 11
- Total xG: 14.39
- Difference: Underperforming by 3.39
9. Aston Villa
Only two teams have outscored Aston Villa this season, and a large proportion of their 19 goals can be attributed to their 6-1 drubbing of Brighton at the end of September.
Unai Emery’s revolution has show little signs of letting up, with Villa just two behind Arsenal when combining total points won across 2023 so far (59).
In terms of xG, they have surpassed their total by 3.64, which puts them right at the top of the league as the strongest out-performers of their own expected goals.
- Goals Scored: 19
- Total xG: 15.36
- Difference: Outperforming by 3.64
8. Chelsea
Are Chelsea beginning to find their feet?
Mauricio Pochettino’s side put an end to a deflating three game winless run in matchweek seven against West London neighbours Fulham, before going on to register their most impressive attacking display yet in a 4-1 win over Burnley.
Six goals in two games is more than they managed across their first six games, but it hasn’t been without a lack of trying.
Chelsea’s extortionately expensive frontline finally clicking could be a worrisome prospect for the rest of the league, particularly when you consider they are the third-highest underperformers in terms of xG.
- Goals Scored: 11
- Total xG: 15.79
- Difference: Underperforming by 4.79
7. Arsenal
It might come as a surprise to see the Premier League‘s joint-leaders all the way down in seventh.
Their goals-to-xG ratio ranks among the most balanced in the league at 0.20, which highlights how good Mikel Arteta’s side are at putting away crucial chances.
They have garnered their fair share of criticism for not being as ruthless as they should be however, with Gabriel Jesus and Eddie Nketiah squandering big chances on several occasions.
The suggestion is that, if Arsenal unlocked their full potential in front of goal, they could outperform their xG immeasurably.
- Goals Scored: 16
- Total xG: 15.80
- Difference: Outperforming by 0.20
6. Manchester City
Six consecutive wins inspired little hope for the rest of the league, as Manchester City looked imperious in their pursuit of a third consecutive league title.
However, consecutive defeats for the first time since 2018 has left them two points off the pace as we head into the second international break.
Their xG total is likely to have suffered a significant blow against Arsenal after registering just 0.77. Their last shot of the game came in the 58th minute.
Nevertheless, they are helped by their impeccable defensive record, which has seen them allow the least xG in the Premier League (5.58).
- Goals Scored: 17
- Total xG: 16.80
- Difference: Outperforming by 0.20
5. Everton
Yep, that’s right. Everton are outperforming both Arsenal and Manchester City in expected goals.
For a side who brushed shoulders with relegation last season and had little-to-no inspiration in front of goal, this should inspire a huge amount of confidence.
The Toffees still find themselves teetering on the edge of the drop zone, but if they start to translate their surprising chance creation into goals, they can begin to make positive strides towards an improved finish.
Everton rank second in the league for most shots, but they will need to start converting them – their goals-to-xG ratio is the largest underperformance so far this term at 8.56
- Goals Scored: 9
- Total xG: 17.58
- Difference: Underperforming by 8.56
4. Tottenham
Tottenham currently lead the Premier League table for the first time since December 2020, thanks to their superior goal haul.
Ange Postecoglou’s relentless pressing style and strong emphasis on having runners in behind for standout performer James Maddison to find has transformed them into a revered side.
It is testament to his feel-good style that this Spurs squad, who were on their knees last season, look rejuvenated and reinvented.
- Goals Scored: 19
- Total xG: 17.59
- Difference: Outperforming by 0.41
3. Brighton
Brighton have been uncharacteristically sluggish in defence at times, but there is no denying their credentials as one of Europe’s most potent attacking units.
They are a chance creation machine, and can conjure up scoring opportunities out of nothing. No longer are they ‘xG FC’ as they were aptly named under former manager Graham Potter.
The Seagulls are now able to round off chances that they were squandering previously, which has seen them break new ground in Europe and rank among the Premier League’s top six.
They are the highest scorers in the league this season, and have netted three or more goals in half of their fixtures.
- Goals Scored: 21
- Total xG: 18.26
- Difference: Outperforming by 2.74
2. Liverpool
Jurgen Klopp’s side survived an early-season scare to dispel any doubts of their return to the upper echelons on the table.
The additions of Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai have injected some much needed attacking impetus after last season’s wobble, with the latter in particular crucial to carrying the Reds further up the pitch.
As things stand, they are taking their chances with a goals-to-xG ratio of 0.74.
- Goals Scored: 18
- Total xG: 18.74
- Difference: Underperforming by 0.74
1. Newcastle
A slow start from Newcastle, in which they had to endure a tough run of Manchester City, Liverpool and Brighton, has been fully rectified in recent weeks.
Not least in an eight-goal drubbing away at Sheffield United, which makes up 40% of their 20-goal haul so far after eight games.
The Magpies look far more dangerous in front of goal than they did last season, which is a scary prospect for this season’s Champions League challengers. They have the highest xG in the Premier League and are still managing to outperform it by 1.22.
- Goals Scored: 20
- Total xG: 18.78
- Difference: Outperforming by 1.22
Lowest xG in the Premier League
- Sheffield United – 5.84 xG
- Burnley – 7.03 xG
- Nottingham Forest – 7.91 xG
- Fulham – 9.75 xG
- Bournemouth – 10.03 xG
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