See below our ITV Racing stats and tips ahead of their LIVE action at Ripon, Newbury and Newmarket this Saturday – 19th August 2023. You can use these horse racing trends to find the best horse profiles based on past winners.
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ITV Racing Stats & Tips For Ripon, Newbury and Newmarket
This weekend the ITV horse racing cameras are spread across three venues – Ripon, Newbury and Newmarket – to take in seven races at the tracks.
At Ripon, it’s their biggest race day on the calendar with the competitive William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap their showcase race – a prize jockey Connor Beasley has won three times since 2016 and he’s back for more riding Monsieur Kodi.
Down at Newmarket they host the unique ‘greys only’ race with the clue in the title on what horses can run in it – the last three favourites have won, so can that trend continue?
Then, finally, at Newbury there are four LIVE ITV races at the Berkshire track that are spearheaded by the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes – a prize the Eve Johnson Houghton-trained Jumby won last year.
You can find out more about the full ITV race schedule below and also our key trends and stats to help you find the winners.
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Ripon Horse Racing Trends and Tips On Great St Wilfrid Day
2:40 William Hill Silver Trophy Handicap Cl4 (3yo+ 0-80) 6f ITV
Not much trends-wise to go on here with no past runnings, but jockey David Allen does have a fair record riding 3 year-olds at the track – he gets the leg-up on the Tim Easterby-trained Northcliff.
Trainer Adrian Paul Keatley also does well at the track with a 25% strike-rate with his 4+ year-olds and has Mark’s Choice here, while Paul Midgely runners at Ripon are always respected too and he’s got Strong Johnson.
- No previous runnings
- Jockey David Allen has a 20% record riding 3 year-olds at the track
- Trainer Adrian Paul Keatley has a 25% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
- Trainer Paul Midgely has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
3:15 – William Hill Great St Wilfrid Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV
With 76% of the last 21 winners aged between 4-6 this would be against the likes of Summerghand, Lakota Blue, Dream For Gold, Sophia’s Starlight, Hyperfocus and Gulliver – who are all either too young or too old.
Having carried 8-12 or more is another plus, while don’t worry if your fancy didn’t win last time out – 15 of the last 21 didn’t either and 13 of the last 21 winners were unplaced in their most recent run too.
It’s a race jockey Connor Beasley has a top record in too – winning the race 3 times since 2016 – he rides Monsieur Kodi.
While trainers Richard Fahey and David O’Meara have won 5 of the last 12 between them.
Fahey has the already mentioned Monsieur Kodi and O’Meara runs Summerghand and Gulliver, who has the age trend to overcome.
With no winner from stall 1 in the last 17, this is a negative for Lakota Blue, and despite only 7 winning favourites since 1990, it’s worth noting 5 of these have been in the last 10.
Finally, with 8 of the last 17 winners coming between stalls 8-13, this would help King Of Bavaria, Twelfth Knight, Aramis Grey, Brazen Bolt, Wobwobwob and Live In The Moment.
- 18/21 – Previous winners over 6f
- 16/21 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
- 15/21 – Didn’t win last time out
- 14/21 – Carried 8-12 or more
- 14/21 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
- 14/21 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 13/21 – Finished unplaced last time out
- 12/21 – Had run at Ripon before (4 won)
- 12/21 – Unplaced favourites
- 12/21 – Had 5 or more previous runs already that season
- 8/21 – Ran at either Goodwood (5) or Newmarket (3) last time out
- 6/21 – Aged 4 years-old
- 6/21 – Winning favourites (5 in the last 10)
- 3/21 – Trained by David O’Meara (3 of last 12)
- 3/21 – Ridden by Daniel Tudhope
- 3/21 – Ridden by Connor Beasley
- 2/21 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 10)
- 1/21 – Aged 3 years-old
- Intrinsic Bond won the race in 2022
- Justanotherbottle won the race in 2021
- No winner from stall 1 in the last 17 runnings
- 8 of the last 17 winners came from stalls 8-13 (inc)
- Only 7 winning favourites since 1990
- Since 1986 ALL bar one winner returned 20/1 or less
RELATED: 2023 Great St Wilfrid Horse Racing Trends: Key Stats To Find Saturday’s Ripon Winner
Newbury Horse Racing Trends and Tips
1:50 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f61y ITV
81% of the last 21 winners were aged between 3-5 years-old – good news for Jack Darcy, Kemari, Ching Smith, Luisa Casati, Arrest and Klondike.
The Frankie Dettori-ridden Arrest will be popular being the top-rated and also getting weight off the older horses but needs to bounce back from two poor runs in the Epsom Derby and King Edward VII Stakes.
Running at Goodwood or Newmarket is another trend to look for and being a proven course winner too. With that in mind chances are taken on the lightly-raced Klondike for William Haggas, who won at the Berkshire track on debut, and recent Newmarket scorer Kemari for Godolphin.
- 21/21 – Had won at least twice in their career
- 18/21 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
- 17/21 – Aged 3-5 years-old
- 16/21 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
- 15/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 15/21 – Winning distance of 1 ¼ lengths or more
- 14/21 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
- 13/21 – Officially rated 110 or higher
- 12/21 – Ran at Goodwood or Newmarket last time out
- 12/21 – Winning favourites
- 9/21 – Had already won a Group race
- 9/21 – Had won at Newbury before
- Hukum won the race in 2020 and 2021
2:25 – Highclere Castle Gin Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-88) 5f ITV
Little to go on again here with no past runnings, so we have to delve into the trainer stats at the track.
Ed Walker does well with his 4+ year-olds and runs Libra Tiger, who won well at Sandown last time out. While Rod Milman also has a fair return on his 3 year-olds and send Woolhampton to post.
- No previous runnings
- Trainer Ed Walker has a 19% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
- Trainer Rod Milman has a 25% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
3.00 – Heart Bingo Summer Sizzler Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 7f ITV
92% of the last 12 winners were aged between 3-6 years-old, so this would be against Lyndon B, Bless Him and Accidental Agent.
Clive Cox has trained 2 of the last 3 winners and so his Lethal Nymph has to enter calculations too and should be more at home on the quicker ground.
Finally, it’s also worth noting that 3 of the last 4 winners came from stall 6, which is a big plus for Lyndon B – despite falling down on the age stat.
- 11/12 – Aged between 3-6 (inc)
- 11/12 – Carried 9-1 or more in weight
- 10/12 – Won between 2-4 times before
- 10/12 – Had won over 7f or further before
- 9/12 – Finished 5th or better last time out
- 8/12 – Rated between 90-96 (inc)
- 7/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
- 7/12 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-7
- 7/12 – Had raced at Newbury before
- 6/12 – Irish bred
- 4/12 – Ran at Ascot last time out
- 3/12 – Ridden by Adam Kirby
- 2/12 – Trained by William Haggas
- 2/12 – Trained by Clive Cox
- 2/12 – Winning favourites
- 2/12 – Won last time out
- The 3 of the last 4 winners came from stall 6
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
3.35 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV
3 and 4 year-olds have the best records in the race – winning 17 of the last 21 runnings – so Witch Hunter, Marbaan, Mostabhir, New Endeavour and Mammas Girl get the thumbs up.
Jumby won the race last year too and is back for more and has to be respected.
Just 1 winner from stall 1 in the last 14 too, so not ideal for Mostabshir fans, so a chance is taken on the Charlie Fellowes runner Marbaan, who ticks a lot of boxes and was last seen running a fine third in the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood.
- 19/21 – Didn’t win last time out
- 18/21 – Had won a Listed or Group race before
- 17/21 – Had won over this 7f trip before
- 17/21 – Officially rated 108 or more
- 17/21 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
- 16/21 – Had won 3 or more times already in their career
- 15/21 – Had 3 or more previous runs already that season
- 11/21 – Had run at Newbury before (4 won)
- 8/21 – Ran at Goodwood last time out
- 2/21 – Trained by William Haggas (2 of the last 8)
- 13 of the last 14 winners were all draw 6 or lower
- Just one winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
- Jumby won the race in 2022
Newmarket Horse Racing Trends and Tips
2:05 – Jenningsbet Grey Horse Handicap (for Grey Horses Only) Cl4 6f ITV
A unique race here as the horses have to be a grey to run – but don’t worry, that’s not a trend.
95% of the last 20 winners didn’t win last time out, so a negative for Celtic Champion, Masterclass and Magical Max.
Strike won the race in 2022 and returns but this success 12 months ago remains his sole win still from 14 outings and he’s rated 3lbs higher this time.
It’s also been a fair race for the favourites, with the last three winning.
Finally, with 4 of the last 5 winners coming from stalls 4 or lower – if we apply this to the ‘didn’t win last time out’ stat – Lethal Angel, Blue Flame and Gunmetal might be worth interests at big prices.
- 19/20 – Didn’t win last time out
- 17/20 – Had 4 or more runs already that season
- 16/20 – Had won over 6f before
- 16/20 – Winning distance of 1 length or less
- 15/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
- 14/20 – Aged 5 or older
- 13/20 – Had 3 or more career wins
- 13/20 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
- 13/20 – Carried 9-1 or less
- 9/20 – Unplaced favourites
- 3/20 – Winning favourites
- 4 of the last 5 winners from stalls 4 or lower
- Strike won the race in 2022
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