Use our 2023 John Smith’s Cup trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race. It’s a prize the Andrew Balding yard have won twice in the last four years, while 86% of the last 21 winners were aged 5 or younger.
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John Smith’s Cup Trends to Help You Find The 2023 Winner
York racecourse will stage their popular John Smith’s Cup fixture this Saturday – a race that has been supported by John Smith’s Brewery since it was first run in 1960 and stands as the longest running sponsorship on the flat.
12 months ago, we saw the Owen Burrows-trained Anmaat win the race as the 5/1 joint-favourite (watch below), but it’s also been a prize the William Haggas (3 wins) and Andrew Balding (2) yards have done well in recently – winning the pot five times between them since 2011.
So, to help find the winner – let’s look at the key 2023 John Smith’s Cup trends to look out for and hopefully by applying these to the final runners it will help point you in the direction of Saturday’s big York handicap winner.
What Date & Time Is The 2023 John Smith’s Cup?
📅Time/Date: 3:10pm (Saturday, 15th July 2023)
🏇Racecourse: York
💰 Winner: £103,080
📺 TV: RacingTV / ITV
🎲 Odds: Torito 9/2| Peace Man 8/1 | Amleto 12/1| Perfuse 12/1 | Scampi 12/1 | Spirit Dancer 12/1 | 14/1 Bar
RELATED: 2023 July Cup Trends: Which Horses Tick The Most Newmarket Stats?
2023 John Smith’s Cup Trends
- 19/21 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
- 19/21 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
- 18/21 – Aged 5 or younger
- 14/21 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
- 14/21 – Came from stall 9 or higher
- 14/21 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/21 – Carried 9-3 or less
- 12/21 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
- 12/21 – Aged 4 years-old
- 12/21 – Officially rated between 99-105
- 10/21 – Had run at York before
- 6/21 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
- 3/21 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
- 3/21 – Trained by William Haggas
- 3/21 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
- 2/21 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 4)
- 2/21 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 10)
- Since 1960 just one winner older than 6
- 7 of the last 9 winners carried 9st 3lbs or more
- 10 of the last 12 winners aged 4 or 5
- The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 12/1
Winning Form Over at Least 1m1f Is a Must-Have
The John Smith’s Cup is run over 1m 2 1/2f and so it’s no real shock that the bulk of recent winners have won over at least 1m1f in the past.
A massive 90% of the last 21 winners ticked this John Smith’s Cup trend and even though most of the runners will fit the bill here it’s still worth looking back at past runs to see if any fancies are stepping up in trip for the first time.
86% Of The Last 21 John Smith’s Cup Winners Aged 5 Or Younger
Age is a big John Smith’s Cup trend to look for too. Since 2002, there have been 18 winners (86%) aged 5 or younger. Yes, in 2021 Johnny Drama (aged 6) and in 2016 Educate (aged 7) kicked this stat into touch, but prior to that you have to go back to 1969 (My Swanee) to find the last horse aged 6 to land the spoils.
We can take this age stat further too, by knowing that a massive 10 of the last 12winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old. Wigmore Hall won the race as a 3 year-old in 2010, but is the only youngster to win since 2001.
While, at the other end of the age spectrum, there has only been one winner aged 7 or older since 1960.
Horses That Had Between 3-5 Runs That Season Have Done Well
Coming into the John Smith’s Cup fit from at least three runs that season is another thing to look for. This is backed up with 67% of the last 21 winners having raced between 3-5 times that term.
67% Of Winners Since 2002 Came From Stalls 9 Or Higher
The draw has played its part too. Yes, being run over 1m 2 1/2f then many might feel the starting position isn’t that important, but since 2002 there have been 14 winners (21 runnings) coming from stalls 9 or higher to suggest there is a trend to note here.
Last year’s winner, Anmaat confirmed this trend too – winning from the 10 berth. However, there is a small word of caution here that this John Smith’s Cup trend might be turning. Between 2018 and 2021 (4 runs) we saw winners between stalls 1-7.
RELATED: Top Free Horse Racing Tips & Advice for UK Betting Today
78% Of The Last 9 Winners Carried 9st 3lbs Or More
Being a handicap, then weight carried is the next trend to note. Seven of the last 9 John Smith Cup winners carried 9st 3lbs or more in weight, while ALL of the last 10 winners had 8-11 or more.
With 12 of the last 21 winners also rated between 99-105, this is also another weight related stat to look out for.
12 Of The Last 21 Winners Aged 4, Rated 99-105 and Finished In The Top 4 Last Time Out
Coming into the John Smith’s Cup off the back of a decent last run is next up with 57% of the last 21 winners recording a top four finish last time out.
If we add this stat to being rated between 99 and 105 and also being aged 4, which also both boast the same 57% strike-rate, then this should also help whittle down the runners.
Just 3 Winning Favourites In The Last 21 Runnings
12 months ago, we saw the Owen Burrows runner Anmaat reward favourite backers but he was the first market leader to win since Fairmile (2006) and Mullins Bay (2005) – meaning the race has only produced three winning jollies since 2002.
This equates to a 14% favourites strike-rate in the John Smith’s Cup, but it’s still worth noting that 67% of the last 21 winners still returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting.
Respect Trainers Richard Fahey, Andrew Balding and William Haggas
The stables with by far the best John Smith’s Cup recent in recent times are Richard Fahey (2), Andrew Balding (2) and William Haggas (3). The trio of trainers have won the race 7 times between them since 2007.
Fahey did the double in 2007 and 2008 with Charlie Tokyo and Flying Clarets, while Haggas has three wins – Green Destiny (2011), Danchai (2013) and Sinjaai (2020). But more recently with successes in 2019 (Pivoine) and 2021 (Johnny Drama) it’s the Balding yard that have held sway.
Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners
- 2022 – Anmaat (5/1 jfav) Owen Burrows
- 2021 – Johnny Drama (22/1) Andrew Balding
- 2020 – Sinjaari (11/1) William Haggas
- 2019 – Pivoine (14/1) Andrew Balding
- 2018 – Euchen Glen (20/1) Jim Goldie
- 2017 – Ballet Concerto (8/1) Sir Michael Stoute
- 2016 – Educate (18/1) Ismail Mohammed
- 2015 – Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
- 2014 – Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
- 2013 – Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
John Smith’s Cup Betting Odds
We take a look at the latest 2023 John Smith’s Cup betting odds from BetUK, where you can also get a £30 free bet to use on the race.
- Torito @ 4/1
- Peace Man @ 7/1
- Perfuse @ 12/1
- Sonny Liston @ 12/1
- Spirit Dancer @ 12/1
- Amanzoe @ 14/1
- Amleto @ 14/1
- Eagle’s Way @ 14/1
Note: Odds are subject to change and others on request
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T&Cs apply.. New customers, Deposit & Place a Bet within 7 days, and settle a £10 minimum bet at odds of 4/5 (1.8) or greater, to be credited with 3x £10 free bets: 1 x £10 Horse racing, 1 x £10 Free Bet Builder and 1 x £10 Football. Stake not returned. 18+ BeGambleAware.org. |
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WATCH: ANMAAT Winning The 2022 John Smith’s Cup
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