How Much Will Premier League Clubs Spend In January?

With the Premier League’s January transfer window set to open next month, could we be set for another period of record spending?

Premier League clubs spent £815m in January 2023, the highest January transfer spend ever. The monstrous spending power of the Premier League was on full show as English clubs flexed their financial muscles on the market.

Compared with the other so-called “big five” European leagues, the Premier League operates on a completely different level. The combined January 2023 spend of Ligue 1 (£110), Bundesliga (£60m), La Liga (£25m) and Serie A (£25m) added to just £220 million.

The Premier League therefore spent almost four times as much as the next four leagues combined in January 2023. In fact, Chelsea almost singlehandedly accounted for more spending than the other four top European leagues.

American businessman Todd Boehly took control of the club in June 2022. Since then, Chelsea’s transfer spending has surpassed £1 billion.

More than £200 million of that was spent in January 2023 alone, with the struggling Blues dropping £206 million on new arrivals. And with Mauricio Pochettino’s side having picked up just 39 points in 2023, could we see Boehly splash the cash once more?

Mauricio Pochettino has suggested Chelsea must consider spending in the January transfer window, saying his side "are missing something" 🔵💰

— Sky Sports News (@SkySportsNews) December 11, 2023

When does the Premier League January transfer window open?

The 2024 January transfer window will open for European clubs on Monday 1 January 2024.

It will be open for one month, closing in England at 11pm on 31 January. The window will also close for Europe’s top five leagues on the final day of January.

While a month may seem like a long time, it’s really not long in football terms. Clubs, players and agents will already be on high alert for upcoming deals and potential moves. Things move quickly, but it can still take weeks for a deal to be negotiated.

Premier League transfers are always among the most high-profile deals in world football, and can huge ramifications. The “domino effect” of players moving between clubs can throw up some unexpected moves, particularly on deadline day.

In 2023, Premier League clubs spent £275 million on deadline day alone, compared to £80 million in 2022.

Premier League Spending In January Over The Past Decade

Looking back over the last ten years, there has been a staggering increase in January spending.

Premier League clubs spent a combined £130 million in the 2014 winter window. They spent the same figure a year later in 2014, rising to £175 million in 2016.

In 2017, January spending broke the £200 million mark for the first time, as clubs forked out £215 million. That gross spending figure doubled in 2018, with a then record-breaking £430 million.

Spending dropped to £180 million in 2019 – the first decrease in annual January spending by Premier League clubs since 2011.

January 2020 was the last transfer window before the Covid-19 pandemic, and saw Premier League spending rise back up to £230 million. Naturally, the aftermath of a suspended season and fans unable to attend matches was a massive drop in revenue for clubs in 2021.

This was reflected in the modest £70 million combined spend by Premier League clubs in January 2021 – the lowest spend since £60 million in 2012.

But with fans back in stadiums and clubs recovering after lockdowns, spending jumped to £295 million in 2022. This huge jump was dwarfed again last year, with January 2023’s record £815 million spend.

Expected Premier League January Spend 2024

While it’s perhaps unlikely that we’ll see such a monumental spend again this year, the trend is certainly upwards. On average, January spending has increased by £76 million year-on-year over the last ten seasons.

There’s been a 626% jump from the £130 million spent ten years ago in 2014. Annual changes are harder to predict, but if the average jump was reflected in 2024, we would see a transfer spend of £891 million.

What’s more likely is a drop off from the outrageous spending of 2023. Financial Fair Play regulations supposedly limit what clubs can spend, meaning we may see less frivolous expenditure in 2024.