A supercomputer has predicted the final Premier League table for 2024 – with a few surprises.
Using a wide range of data based around expected goals (xG), chance creation and more, the predicted table has given us both a finishing position and a final points tally for every Premier League club.
While it’s never going to be completely accurate, using data such as this can give a reasonably scientific insight into where teams could end up come the final day.
Premier League Top Four Predictions
1. Manchester City – 84 points (Champions)
It’s no surprise to see Pep Guardiola’s men on top of yet another predicted Premier League table. The perennial winners have lifted the title on five of the last six occasions.
While they have been struggling by their standards this season, City are still only four points behind leaders Liverpool. With the champions known for putting together incredible runs after Christmas, it’s perfectly plausible they will win another title race this season.
2. Liverpool – 81 points
Liverpool came from behind to win 2-1 at Crystal Palace on Saturday – with Mohamed Salah scoring his 200th goal for the club. That victory took the Reds to the top of the table, thanks to Arsenal’s 1-0 loss at Aston Villa.
Jurgen Klopp’s men have been in fine form this campaign and are predicted to take the title race right down to the wire. They lifted the trophy in 2020, beating City to the title in a season heavily disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic.
3. Arsenal – 80 points
In third place according to the supercomputer are Arsenal. Last year’s runners up are expected to once again fall short, despite their remarkable progress under Mikel Arteta.
The Gunners are certainly on the right track, but losses like the one at Villa on Saturday show just how far they still have to go. A top four finish may not be what fans are hoping for, but a first title in 20 years might still be beyond Arsenal this season.
4. Aston Villa – 70 points
Aston Villa won a club record 15th consecutive home league game by beating Arsenal on Saturday. That win takes them up to third, above Manchester City.
Unai Emery has worked wonders at Villa Park and his side must be considered genuine contenders now. The supercomputer disagrees though, it seems.
With Villa predicted to finish 14 points below City, their 70-point expected tally would not have been enough for last year’s top four.
The Race For European Football
5. Tottenham – 65 points
Spurs boss Ange Postecoglou became the first Australian to win the Premier League manager of the month award in August. The former Celtic boss was a breath of fresh air and saw his side to the top of the table in the opening weeks.
But a dip in form since then has seen Spurs drop to fifth in the league, which is where the supercomputer predicts they will finish.
Missing out on Champions League football would be devastating considering the start they made to the campaign.
6. Newcastle United – 64 points
Just behind Spurs in the predicted table are Newcastle. Eddie Howe’s men have been imperious at St James’ Park this season, but losing 4-1 at Spurs after a 3-0 midweek defeat at Everton highlights their shocking away form.
A second successive top four finish could be within reach for the Magpies, but not unless they improve away from home.
7. Manchester United – 60 points
Eric Ten Hag’s United side have lacked consistency since well before the Dutch manager took charge. Capable of dominating one week and imploding the next, United have inflicted agony and ecstasy on fans all season.
Sunday’s 3-0 pasting at Old Trafford by Bournemouth of all clubs was a reminder of how bad things can get at United. A sixth-placed finish is possibly generous based on that performance.
8. Brighton – 59 points
Brighton have enjoyed another good season so far, sitting eighth in the table. Having only lost four times in the league, Roberto De Zerbi’s side are difficult to beat.
Another European season beckons for the Seagulls, having already qualified for this year’s Europa League knockouts.
Another Mid Table Finish For Chelsea?
9. Chelsea – 58 points
No side in the Premier League for the full year has picked up fewer points than Chelsea in 2023. The Blues have been abysmal at times, and have just 39 points from their 39 games to date this calendar year.
Despite spending £1 billion on transfers since owner Todd Boehly’s arrival last year, they have languished in mid table consistently. The supercomputer predicts no change in form at Stamford Bridge.
10. West Ham – 51 points
It’s been an up and down season for West Ham. Unbeaten since 4 November, the Irons were hammered 5-0 at Fulham on Sunday.
While they are predicted to be well clear of any trouble, it looks like a dead rubber campaign for David Moyes’ team.
11. Fulham – 46 points
The past week’s result may have Fulham fans looking a little further up the table than 11th. Beating any side 5-0 in the Premier League is no mean feat, but to do it in successive games is almost unheard of.
Currently tenth in the standings, the West London club will no doubt be eyeing a top-half finish. Ending the season above neighbours Chelsea would be particularly sweet for fans, though the computer doesn’t see it happening.
12. Brentford – 46 points
Just below Fulham in the predicted table are fellow West Londoners Brentford. The Bees have lost two on the bounce in recent weeks, including a 1-0 defeat at bottom club Sheffield United last time out.
But wins against Luton, Burnley, Fulham and Chelsea are enough to mean the supercomputer doesn’t think they’ll be near the relegation battle come May.
13. Bournemouth – 44 points
Beating Manchester United 3-0 at Old Trafford on Saturday was a statement of intent from Bournemouth. The Cherries have no desire to end up in a relegation scrap, and results like that have them predicted to finish well above the drop zone.
14. Wolves – 43 points
Wolves finished 13th last season on 41 points, and look set for a similar campaign. The West Midlands outfit have thrown up mixed results, but are predicted to maintain their middle-of-the-road form.
Perhaps a disappointing season for fans, but Premier League survival can never be taken for granted.
Supercomputer Predicts Premier League Relegation Battle
15. Everton – 41 points (*10 point deduction)
Sean Dyche’s Everton side have rallied remarkably since their ten point deduction. Sunday’s 2-0 win against Chelsea was their ninth in 13 league games, and has them predicted to stay up comfortably, despite the deduction.
It’s a season of what might have been for the Toffees, with a top half finish on the cards had they not incurred their penalty.
16. Crystal Palace – 39 points
Despite taking the lead against Liverpool at the weekend, Roy Hodgson’s side gave up another three points late on, losing 2-1 at Selhurst Park.
Such a result typifies exactly why they have picked up just 16 points this season. The supercomputer predicts they will remain in the Premier League, but don’t expect much better, Palace fans.
17. Nottingham Forest – 36 points
Forest recovered from their 5-0 Fulham thumping to draw 1-1 at Wolves in their last game. Manager Steve Cooper is the bookies’ favourite to be the next manager sacked in the Premier League, so things could be very different under a new boss.
But with results and performances lacking, few Forest fans would be hoping for more than survival, which the supercomputer believes they will achieve.
Who Will Be Relegated This Season?
18. Burnley – 28 points
The first of the relegated teams – according to the supercomputer – is Burnley. The Clarets notched up 101 points as they breezed to the EFL Championship title last season, but have struggled in the Premier League.
Vincent Kompany’s men will need some additional firepower in January if they are to avoid an immediate return to the second tier.
19. Luton – 24 points
Luton Town returned to the top flight of English football for the first time in 30 years this season. The Hatters were playing in non-league football just a decade ago, so their progress has been remarkable no matter where they end up this year.
But despite valiant recent defeats against title contenders Arsenal and Manchester City, the computer doesn’t think they’ll have enough quality to survive.
20. Sheffield United – 22 points
Bottom club Sheffield United earned a rare and valuable win against Brentford on Saturday. Before that result, they were on course to break Derby County’s record for the lowest points tally in Premier League history.
Despite some improved recent performances, it would take something miraculous to save the Blades this season, something the supercomputer agrees with.
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