The Champions League Stats That Show Why Manchester United and Newcastle Could Still Qualify

We take a look at some historic UEFA Champions League stats that give a potential boost for Manchester United and Newcastle fans, who are crossing their fingers as we approach the final two matchdays.

With the penultimate round of Champions League group fixtures kicking off on Tuesday night, fans of both Manchester United and Newcastle United know they each have a mountain to climb if they are to make it out of their respective groups.

What Do Manchester United Need to Qualify?

For United in particular, qualification looks particularly challenging. The Red Devils must beat at least one of Galatasaray and Bayern Munich to qualify, but even victory in both of their final games will not mathematically guarantee their progression.

United find themselves in such a precarious position thanks to three agonising defeats to each of the other teams in the group, with FC Copenhagen coming from 3-2 down to win 4-3 in the pick of these clashes. The reverse fixture at Old Trafford saw United win 1-0 for their only points so far this campaign, keeping their relatively slim hopes alive.

Should they win both remaining games, United will finish on nine points, but Copenhagen could still finish above them on ten with two wins of their own. History suggests two wins should do it though, with nine points usually enough for teams to reach the knockouts. 

In the past ten seasons, 12 sides have failed to make it out of their group with nine points or more, compared to 24 that have qualified with nine points or fewer. This means 67% of the time, United’s maximum possible tally has been enough to get out of the group. As far as Champions League stats go, this is about as promising as it gets for United at this moment in time.

Eric Ten Hag’s side face Galatasaray in Turkey at 5:45pm on Wednesday night. 

Group A Table As it Stands

What Do Newcastle Need to Qualify?

For Newcastle, the situation is far simpler. If they win both of their remaining games, they are guaranteed to qualify. Those wins would put them on ten points, while opponents PSG and AC Milan could only reach nine and eight points respectively if they were to lose to Eddie Howe’s men. 

It’s been a tough run so far for the Magpies, losing home and away to Borussia Dortmund following an opening round 0-0 draw in Milan. But with two to play, Newcastle are still masters of their own destiny, and visit PSG on Tuesday at 8:00pm.

Even if things weren’t in their own hands, this Champions League stat bodes well for the Magpies; four of the past 50 sides to reach ten points have failed to escape the Champions League group stages, giving Newcastle a 92% probability of qualification according to the history books. 

Group F As it Stands

Have Manchester City Already Qualified?

Things are even more simple for Manchester City. With a perfect record so far, Pep Guardiola’s side have already qualified with two games to spare, and will top Group G with just one point from their final two matches. City host RB Leipzig at 8:00pm on Tuesday before a trip to Red Star Belgrade on Wednesday December 13. 

What Do Arsenal Need to Qualify?

Arsenal are similarly poised to make it to the Champions League knockout stages for the first time in seven years, where they exited at the round-of-sixteen stage for the seventh consecutive year. 

The Gunners sit top of Group B with three wins from four games, and need just one more win from their final two to guarantee qualification. Mikel Arteta’s team face Lens on Tuesday night in an 8:00pm kick off at the Emirates Stadium before rounding out their group stage fixtures away at PSV Eindhoven on December 12. 

But even two defeats could still see Arsenal top their group, with bottom-placed Sevilla unable to catch the North London side but capable of beating both PSV and Lens in their own remaining matches.

Group B as it Stands

All remaining UEFA Champions League fixtures are available live in the UK exclusively on TNT Sports.