Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew starts the new week with five selections across four races at Wolverhampton and Leicester on Monday, May 23rd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
EMILY POST (system – Ed Bethell handicap debutants, recent outing)
Since the start of 2010, the Bethell yard (currently Ed and previously James) are 14 from 117 (12%) with their handicap debutants for a profit of £13.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Backing only those who’d had a recent outing (1-28 days ago) would have found nine winners from 55 bets (16.4%) for a profit of £50.75. The all-weather runners did especially well and EMILY POST, well clear of the remainder when a half-length runner-up to 11-10 favourite Liangel Hope at Redcar last time, can get off the mark.
LEICESTER 2.20 (1)
KING OF THE KIPPAX (system – Michael Bell handicappers, first run since gelded)
Since the beginning of 2010, Michael Bell has a 27 from 120 record (22.5% strike-rate) with his handicappers having their first start since being gelded and backing them all would have returned a profit of £71.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those owned by Middleham Park were two from four and KING OF THE KIPPAX, who shaped well over 7f at Wolverhampton last summer on his final juvenile outing, looks very interesting now handicapping.
LEICESTER 2.20 (2)
SHOWMAN (system – Hughie Morrison, Leicester handicaps)
As well as backing King Of The Kippax (see above) I want to have a small interest in SHOWMAN. Hughie Morrison has a great recent record in Leicester handicaps, scoring with eight of his 32 runners for a profit of £29.65. Six of those were making their handicap debuts, as Showman is today, and no less than three won at odds of 16-1, 14-1 and 15-2 (the others finished second, fourth and fifth).
HI CLARE (system – Charlie & Mark Johnston, fillies on juvenile debut)
I have more systems for the yard of Charlie & Mark Johnston than any other and one of the more interesting concerns juvenile fillies on their racecourse debuts. In the past ten years, 66 of the 395 qualifiers (16.7%) have won for a profit of £13.55 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s only +3.43% on turnover but if we limit our bets to sprint races (5f-6f) only the profit improves to £73.28 (49 winners from 215 bets). HI CLARE could be worth chancing on her debut.
SHALFA (system – Marco Botti stable switchers, all-weather)
Marco Botti does well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, especially on the all-weather. 17 of the 85 qualifiers have won (20%) for a profit of £31.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. SHALFA, priced at around 14-1 at the time of writing, is worth a speculative punt on her stable debut.
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