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ITV Racing Trends | Newcastle & Newmaket Tips For Sat 25th June

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Newmarket

More ITV racing trends and tips to get stuck into this Saturday (25th June) as they head to Newmarket and Newcastle, with the cameras showing seven races across the two venues, while they are also in Ireland to cover the Irish Derby – Andy Newton is on-hand with his best bets across the seven ITV races. 

At Newmarket, the Group Three Criterion Stakes (3:15) is one of the highlights, while up at Newcastle the Northumberland Plate (3:30) is their main event – a race that’s seen 16 of the last 20 winners aged 6 or younger.

ITV Horse Racing Tips On Saturday 25th June 2022

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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends and Tips (ITV and RacingTV)

2.05 – Maureen Brittain Memorial Empress Fillies’ Stakes Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV

18/19 – Never raced at the track before
16/19 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
15/19 – Had won over either 5 or 6f before
15/19 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
12/19 – Came from stall 5 or lower
11/19 – Had either 2 or 3 previous runs
11/19 – Didn’t win their previous race
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time (2 Albany, 3 Queen Mary)
4/18 – Trained by the Hannon yard
4 of the last 8 winners came from stall 5
7 of the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 15/2

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: The Richard Hannon yard won this race 12 months ago and also back in 2016 and look to have another leading chance – this time with MINNETONKA @ 7/4 with 888Sport. This 2 year-old filly was super-impressive on debut at Salisbury 13 days ago – winning by 7 lengths – and looks well up to stepping up into Listed grade here.

Of the rest, the Frankie-ridden Lezoo was another good winner on debut and can go well too, while Mersea and Malrescia, who are both on three-timers, plus Believing, Miska and Absolutelyflawless all have claims and shouldn’t be far away.

2.40 – House Of Cavani Menswear Fred Archer Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV

10/11 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years-old
10/11 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/11 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
9/11 – Won 3 or more times
8/11 – Drawn between stalls 3-7 (inc)
8/11 – Placed favourites
8/11 – Rated 100+
5/11 – Had run at the track before
4/11 – Winning favourites
3/11 – Ran at York last time out
3/11 – Trained by David Simcock
2/11 – Ridden by William Buick
Universal Order won this race in 2020
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin have a strong hand here with the two top-rated in the field Rebel’s Romance and Kemari. William Buick rides the former, so is likely to be shorter in the betting, with James Doyle on the other.

Both have a bit to prove at the moment though so a chance is taken on the 2020 winner of this race – UNIVERSAL ORDER @ 5/2 with 888Sport. This David Simcock runner hasn’t won since but in his defence has only raced four times. The last of those was an improved second though at Haydock so seems to be heading here running into a bit of form and looks the value call over the Godolphin duo.

3.15 – House Of Cavani Menswear Criterion Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 7f ITV

18/20 – Won over 7f before
18/20 – Had won a Listed (or better) class race before
17/20 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/20 – Aged 5 or younger
12/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/20 – Priced 6/1 or bigger in the betting
9/20 – Came from stall 3 or lower
9/20 – Unplaced favourites
6/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
3/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon (3 of last 11 runnings)
8 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: Pogo beat LANEQASH @ 5/2 with 888Sport by just a nose the last day at Haydock but that form can be reversed here with the Roger Varian runner sure to have improved for that first run back for 246-days. This pair are the joint top-rated in the field (112) and so far over this 7f trip the selection has only finished out of the first three once and that came on heavy ground.

Sunray Major looks a lively danger to those already mentioned, while small claims can be made for Bounce The Blues and Ever Given, but a saver is also advised on ART DU VAL (e/w) @ 10/1 with 888Sport, who represents the Charlie Appleby yard that won this race last season.

Newcastle Horse Racing Trends and Tips (ATR/ITV)

1.50 – Pertemps Network Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 6f ITV

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged between 3-6 years-old
5/5 – Had won over 6f before
5/5 – Won between 2-5 times
5/5 – Carried 9-2 or more in weight
4/5 – Returned between 15/2 or shorter
4/5 – Drawn in stalls 10 or higher
4/5 – Placed favourites
4/5 – Rated between 96 and 99 (inc)
3/5 – Unplaced last time out
3/5 – Had run at the track before
2/5 – Came from stall 10
1/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 9/1

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: Just the five past runnings of this race but with 4 of those winners coming from stalls 10 or higher then Sound Reason, Raatea and Sir Titus have this trend in their favour. All 5 recent winners have also carried 9-2 or more, so the interesting one is the recent Haydock scorer – SOUND REASON (e/w) @ 9/2 with 888Sport.

A winner last time over 5f, but was running on well which indicates this step back up to 6f is worth a crack. Tipperary Tiger, Be Proud and Strike Red are others to note but another drawn high – SIR TITUS (e/w) @ 10/1 with 888Sport, who is also a course winner, can go well too.


2.25 –
Pertemps Network Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 6f ITV

19/20 – Had won over 6f before
18/20 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/20 – Unplaced last time out
15/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Has raced within the last 4 weeks
13/20 – Yet to win a Group race
12/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Had won at least 4 times before
11/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/20 – Aged 5 or older
8/20 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
5/20 – Had run at Newcastle before
3/20 – Won last time out
Judicial (9/1) won the race in 2020
12 of the last 19 winners came between stalls 1-5
Just 2 winners from stall 1 in the last 18 runnings (and only 4 horses placed)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: Sense Of Duty looks a progressive sprinter that heads here having won her last three for the William Haggas yard. The last of those wins came in a Listed race too and she gets a handy fillies and 3 year-old allowance from most of the rest.

Spycatcher has been running well in and around this level and can go well too, while Happy Power, Ebro River and Edraak can’t be ruled out. But the main call here is GLEN SHIEL (e/w) @ 9/2 with 888Sport, who is the top-rated in the field (114), is a past CD winner and should find this drop in grade more to his liking after running in better races recently.

The final one to have a small saver on is the 2020 winner of the race – JUDICIAL (e/w) @ 25/1 with 888Sport. Yes, a 10 year-old now and has a bit to find on these terms but likes the track and despite coming 8th last time (of 14) was only beaten 2 1/4 lengths.

2.55 – Jenningsbet Northumberland Vase Handicap (Consolation race for the Plate) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m 1/2f ITV

6 previous runnings
6/6 – Carried 9-3 or more in weight
6/6 – Ran in the last 2 months
6/6 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
6/6 – Won with between 9-3 and 9-10 in weight
5/6 – Won over at least 1m6f in the past
5/6 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Aged 4 years-old
3/6 – Winners came from stalls 11-19 (inc)
3/6 – Won over 2m (flat) in the past
3/6 – Winning favourites
2/6 – Won last time out
2/6 – Had run at Newcastle (flat) before
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 8/1

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: Many chances here but the one we’ll side with is the Hughie Morrison-trained RAVENS ARK (e/w) @ 12/1 with 888Sport. This 5 year-old ticks most of the main trends, depite this being a fairly new race, and comes here having run a close second (1/2 length) at Goodwood last time out. He’s off the same mark, while Tom Marquand riding and the switch to the AW (has won at Lingfield) is fine.

Monsieur Lambrays, Zoffeee and the consistent Mellow Magic enter calculations too, but the Andrew Balding runner – AURUFEROUS (e/w) @ 16/1 with 888Sport is the danger. This 4 year-old actually ran in the same race as Ravens Ark last time (4th) but the move back to the AW looks a plus (4 runs) with his only career win coming at Southwell, plus has also run second twice at Kempton.

 

3.30 – Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 2m19y ITV

19/20  – Had won over at least 1m4f before on the flat
19/20 – Finished fifth or better last time out
16/20 – Came from stall 14 or lower
16/20 – Aged 6 or younger
16/20 – Finished in the top three in their previous race
15/20 – Had won over at least 1m6f before on the flat
12/20 – Carried 8-12 or less
11/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/20 – Had at least 2 turf flat runs already that season
7/20 – Won by a National Hunt yard
6/20 – Won their previous race
5/20 – Winning favourites
4/20 – Had won on the flat at Newcastle before
3/20 – Ran at Haydock last time out (inc 3 of the last 14 winners)
1/20 – Won by a previous winner of the race
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 13.5/1
Note: From 2016 the Northumberland Plate was staged on the All Weather track at Newcastle

Other Northumberland Plate Facts

Just 1 horse older than 8 has won the race since 1985 (2021, Nicholas T (9))
Five of the last 16 winners ran at either Ascot or Haydock last time out
Ten winning favourites (1 joint) since 1985, including 4 of the last 10

SPORTSLENS BEST BETS: Very competitive renewal as always. Last year’s third – Rajinsky – has to have decent claims again, but is 8lbs higher this time. Jockey Harry Davies does help to take off 5lbs of that but is still rated 3lbs more than 12 months ago.

Trueshan was 6th last year too and is rated 2lbs higher. He’s the class act in the race (rated 120) but as a result has a huge weight of 10-8 to carry, which makes it a big ask – Hollie Doyle rides.

The Andrew Balding pair of Spirit Mixer and Valley Forge will be big players too. Both come here in good form, while past course winner – Onesmoothoperator – shouldn’t be far away.

But a chance is taken on the Charlie Appleby runner – BANDINELLI (e/w) @ 18/1 with 888Sport – with the yard winning this race in 2016 too. This 4 year-old will be more at home back on the AW after two poor runs on the grass and his overall form on the AW reads well with 3 wins from six.

The danger can come from last year’s fourth – ISLAND BRAVE (e/w) @ 14/1 with 888Sport who looks fair e/w value considering he’s 2lbs lower than last year and also has the useful Benoit De La Sayette riding to claim 5lbs. He’s also one of just two past CD winners in the field.

Finally, you feel this is a race that trainer Mark Johnston should be winning more – his only success in the contest came in 1994 (Quick Ransom), but often does well with his staying handicappers. He runs three this time – Themaxwecan, Tribal Art and Golden Flame.

 

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