Horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to great effect and shares his thoughts for Tuesday’s racing below.
Andrew heads to Wincanton, Catterick and Newcastle for his four selections on Tuesday December 14th. Follow his tips on horse racing betting sites throughout the upcoming and hectic festive fixture list, and all year round:
NATTY NIGHT (system – Venetia Williams, Flat to low-grade hurdles switch)
Venetia Williams is better known for her exploits with chasers but she does well with horses running in low-grade (Class 4 or lower) hurdles who last ran on the Flat. They have a 15 from 70 record for a profit of £30.08 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected wins = 8.92). NATTY NIGHT didn’t show much in three Flat outings for his current handler earlier this year but the switch to jumping could bring about improvement.
FORWARD PLAN (system – Anthony Honeyball, first-time tongue-tie in bumpers)
Anthony Honeyball has a 12 from 53 record when fitting one of his bumper runners with a tongue-tie for the first time (22.6% strike-rate) and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £47.74 to a £1 level stake at SP. Point winner FORWARD PLAN failed to live up to market leader billing on his Rules debut at Uttoxeter last month but is worth another chance in the headgear.
REGIMENTO (system – Casemento at Newcastle AW, 7f+, 3yo+)
Progeny of the sire Casemento have a useful record on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface, winning 14 of their 108 starts for a profit of £16.37 to a £1 level stake at SP. If we ignore the two-year-olds (two from 22, -£13.17) and races over 5f-6f (1-24, -£16.75) we’re eft with 11 winners from 66 qualifiers for a profit of £47.29. REGIMENTO is no star but this six-race maiden’s best effort came on his only previous visit to Newcastle when fourth in a 1m2f novice contest at 125-1. He’s been tried at up to 1m4f since but coming back to 1m in first-time headgear looks an interesting angle and he could go well at a big price.
MONSIEUR KODI (system – Richard Fahey, nursery debutants at Newcastle)
Richard Fahey does well with juveniles having heir first handicap experience at Newcastle, scoring with six of the 23 qualifiers for a profit of £30.75. MONSIEUR KODI has shaped as though a longer trip were needed in three quick runs at 5f, only finding one too good when 14-1 at Wolverhampton last time. He looks a likely improver now running in nursery company.
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