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Market Rasen Summer Plate 2022 Tips, Trends and Winning Probability

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Market Rasen

The Market Rasen Summer Plate Chase is the big highlight for Lincolnshire racecourse each year as this Saturday we look forward to the latest renewal of the 2m5 1/2f contest – a prize the Welsh-based trained, Peter Bowen has landed the race an incredible seven times! Andy Newton takes a look at the latest betting, each horses probability of winning and the main 2022 Market Rasen Summer Plate Chase trends.

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What Time Is The 2022 Summer Plate Chase?

🕙Time: 3:14pm (UK time)
📅Date: Saturday 16th July 2022
🏇Racecourse: Market Rasen
💰 Winner: £31,323
📺 TV: RacingTV/ITV


DID YOU KNOW? 17 of the last 20 Market Rasen Summer Plate winners were aged 7 or older


Summer Plate Chase Trends and Stats

Help find the winner of this Saturday’s 2022 Summer Plate Chase at the Market Rasen using our key trends and stats

  • 19/20 – Had run within the last 3 months
  • 18/20 – Had won over at least 2m3f (chase) before
  • 17/20 – Aged 7 or older
  • 14/20 – Had won 2 or more chases before
  • 14/20 – Carried 10-13 or less
  • 14/20 – Had run at Market Rasen before
  • 13/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11/20 – Won their previous race
  • 7/20 – Winning favourites (3 joint)
  • 6/20 – Trained by Peter Bowen (7 wins in total)
  • 4/20 – Ran at Stratford last time out
  • 3/20 – Trained by the Pipe stable
  • 2/20 – Ran at Ffos Las last time out (2 of the last 11)
  • 2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
  • Francky Du Berlais (11/1) won the race in 2021
  • Trainer Jonjo O’Neill won the race in 2009 and 2014
  • 11 of the last 14 winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
  • The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/1

Francky Du Berlais Our 2022 Market Rasen Summer Plate Tip and Best Bet

francky du berlais

Okay, since the Summer Plate Chase was first run in 1995 we’ve not seen a repeat winner of the race, but I feel this has a great chance of happening this year.

Last year’s hero – FRANCKY DU BERLAIS – is back for more and with that success last year is one of the few proven course and distance winners in the race – 14 of the last 20 winners had raced at the venue in the past.

Add in that he’s only rated 2lbs higher than last year’s 7 1/2 length win, then the handicapper has certainly given him a chance of successfully defending his title.

Yes, it won’t be easy in the heat with 12st to carry, but this year’s renewal doesn’t look quite as strong as last years, while looking back at this form he’s a horse that’s carried a big weight well in the past.

This season he also returned to win well at Uttoxeter at the end of April and certainly wasn’t disgraced last time when third (of 16) in a Listed Chase.

The icing on the cake is that he’s trained by Peter Bowen, who has a cracking record in this event – winning 6 of the last 19 (7 wins in total). Son, James Bowen, who knows the horse inside out and is riding at the top of his game, is the final bonus in the saddle.

BACK FRANCKY DU BERLAIS (e/w) @ 5/1 with BoyleSports


RELATED – Market Rasen Races Today – Cards, Tips & Results at Lincolnshire Track


Market Rasen Summer Plate Best Of The Rest

The Jonjo O’Neill camp landed the race in 2019 and 2014, and have another huge chance with thier recent Uttoxeter scorer – La Domaniale. CD winners, Mahler’s Promise and Al Roc come here in form too.

However, it’s Peter Bowen’s other runner that is also of interest – STATUARIO (e/w) @ 12/1 with BoyleSports, plus last weekend’s easy Stratford winner – ROSTELLO (e/w) @ 8/1 with BoyleSports.

The former has a string of silver medals to his name and has 2 lengths to find with Mahler’s Promise, but is 2lbs better off now and kept on well that day to think he can overturn that form and the in-form Sean Bowen gets the leg-up to ride.

Rostello bounced back to form in cracking fashion at Stratford last Sunday – winning by an easy 14 lengths and is up just 5lbs. He stays a bit further than this trip too and having won with 11-11 last time will like the fact he’s only got 10-2 on this back (less the jockey’s 5lbs claim).

Trainer Peter Bowen Has Won 6 of the last 19 Renewals (32%)

It’s hard to overlook the top record in the Summer Plate of trainer Peter Bowen – he won he race 12 months ago with Francky Du Berlais and that was actually his seventh success in the contest.

His first success in the race came way back in 1997, in only the third running of the race (Stately Home), who was ridden by the former Cheltenham Gold Cup winning-jockey Norman Williamson.

Bowen also had a purple-patch of three Summer Plate Chase wins on the bounce in 2006 (Yes Sir), 2007 (Iron Man) and 2008 (Snoopy Loopy). As well as last year’s winner – Francky Du Berlais – the yard also have Statuario entered for the Plate this Saturday. Son, Sean Bowen, rides.

Favourites Have A 35% Strike-rate In The Last 20 Runnings

The Fergal O’Brien yard look set to have the Summer Plate favourite with MORTLACH and the recent stats suggest this 7 year-old has a big chance with 35% of the last 20 market leaders in this race winning.

The horse heads into the race off the back of three straight wins too and is only up 6lbs for the last of those which was an 11 length success at Aintree.

70% Of Recent Summer Plate Winners Carried 10st 13lbs or Less and Had Raced At Market Rasen Before

Last year’s winner – Francky Du Berlais – will have this weight trend to defy with 12st to lump around, but does, of course, have the track experience stat on his side.

Of the 14 runners heading to post – there are JUST TWO horses carrying less than 10st – Statuario (10-10) and Rostello (10-2).

85% Of The Last 20 Summer Plate Winners Aged 7 or Older

Another big trend is the age of past winners, with a massive 85% of recent winners aged 7 or older. Of the 14 horses entered there are two horses aged younger than 7 – Light N Strike (6) and La Domaniale, so this pair will have this stat to overcome.

At the other end of the age spectrum, we’ve only had one winner aged 11 (or older) since 1999 (23 runnings), so the Pipe-trained Al Roc (11), Peregrine Run (12) and Licklighter (11) will need to defy this trend.


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Market Rasen Summer Plate 2022 Latest Betting, Runners and Probability Of Winning

Summer Plate Horse Latest Odds Win Probability Bookmaker
Mortlach 5/1 17% logo boylesports
Francky Du Berlais 5/1 17% logo boylesports
Manofthemountain 7/1 12.5% logo boylesports
Texard 7/1 12.5% logo boylesports
Mahler’s Promise 7/1 12.5% logo boylesports
La Domaniale 15/2 12% logo boylesports
Rostello 8/1 11% logo boylesports
Statuario 12/1 8% logo boylesports
Light N Strike 16/1 6% logo boylesports
Peregrine Run 20/1 5% logo boylesports
Tardree 20/1 5% logo boylesports
Al Roc 25/1 4% logo boylesports
Rapid Response 28/1 3.5% logo boylesports
Licklighter 28/1 3.5% logo boylesports

All odds correct as of 08:24 BST on Fri, 16 July and subject to change

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Summer Plate Recent Winners

  • 2021 – FRANCKY DU BERLAIS (11/1)
  • 2020 – REALLY SUPER (25/1)
  • 2019 – CASABLANCA MINX (5/1 jfav)
  • 2018 – MORE BUCK’S (6/1)
  • 2017 – ALCALA (9/1)

Watch Francky Du Berlais Winning The 2021 Summer Plate

2022 Market Rasen Race Times and Schedule | Sat 16th July

  • 1:35 – Unibet Partnering Great Racing Welfare Cycle Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl4 (4yo+) 2m4½f RTV
  • 2:06 – Unibet Horserace Betting Operator Of The Year Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 2m7f ITV
  • 2:41 – Unibet 15 To Go Summer Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (3yo+) 2m½f ITV
  • 3:14 – Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m5½f ITV
  • 3:50 – Unibet Offer Extra-Place Races Every Day Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) Cl3 (4yo+) 2m5½f RTV
  • 4:25 – Unibet 3 Uniboosts A Day Handicap Chase Cl4 (4yo+ 0-110) 2m1f RTV
  • 5:00 – Unibet Proudly Supports Wir Racing Home Handicap Hurdle Cl4 (3yo+ 0-110) 2m½f RTV

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