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Irish Oaks 2022 Tips, Trends and Horses Winning Probability

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magical lagoon

The Irish Oaks 2022 is one of the standout horse races this Saturday (16th July) from the Curragh racecourse, but unfortunatley Emily Upjohn WON’T be heading to Ireland after having travel issues. This leaves the Jessie Harrington-trained Magical Lagoon as the new Irish Oaks betting favourite. Andy Newton takes a look at the latest betting, each horses probability of winning and the main 2022 Irish Oaks trends.


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What Time Is The 2022 Irish Oaks?

🕙Time: 3:45pm (UK time)
📅Date: Saturday 16th July 2022
🏇Racecourse: Curragh Races
💰 Winner: €285,000
📺 TV: RacingTV/ITV


DID YOU KNOW? 14 of the last 19 Irish Oaks winners returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting.


Irish Oaks Trends and Stats

Help find the winner of this Saturday’s 2022 Irish Oaks at the Curragh using our key trends and stats

  • 18/19 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
  • 17/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 15/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
  • 14/19 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
  • 14/19 – Won last time out
  • 13/19 – Had won between 1-2 times before
  • 12/19 – Placed favourites
  • 11/19 – Won over 1m4f before
  • 9/19 – Won by a UK-based trainer
  • 9/19 – Ran in the Epsom Oaks last time out
  • 8/19 – Winning distance, 3 lengths or more
  • 7/19 – Had won a Group One before
  • 7/19 – Winning favourites
  • 6/19 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
  • 6/19 – Won the Epsom Oaks last time out
  • 4/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (5 wins in total)
  • 2/19 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 5)
  • The average winning SP in the last 19 years is 9/2

Magical Lagoon Our 2022 Irish Oaks Tip

magical lagoon

Emily Upjohn had been the warm favourite for the Irish Oaks all week, but on Friday the John Gosden horse suffered a travel issue meaning her plane couldn’t get her to Ireland. There is now talk of her being rerouted to the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Qipco Stakes at Ascot next Saturday, where she’s @ 5/2 with BoylesSports and is set to take on the Irish Derby winner Westover @ 6/4 with BoyleSports

But the other Irish Oaks runners for Saturday’s Curragh race will be pleased Emily Upjohn hasn’t made the race as their task will be that much easier.

As a result, the Irish Oaks betting market was shaken up badly after the Emily Upjohn news, which saw the Jessie Harrington-trained MAGICAL LAGOON @ 6/5 with BoyleSports installed as the new market leader for the 3:45 Curragh race on Saturday.

This 3 year-old was last seen winning the G2 Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot in June on only her fifth career run. That was her first try over this 1m4f trip too, but she stayed on well that day to see off Sea Silk Road, with another runner on Saturday – History – back in third. On that form she’s the clear one to beat.

Add in that she’s also a proven course winner here at the Curragh, after winning over a mile at the track last August, then the track is fine too. Regular rider Shane Foley rides again too and, in what looks a weak Group One race now, she’s been given a top chance to get a win at the highest level and also provide her trainer – Jessie Harrington – with her first success in this top Irish race.

BACK MAGICAL LAGOON @ 6/5 with BoyleSports


Aidian O’Brien Has 6 Irish Oaks Wins To His Name

Aidan OBrien

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the Irish Oaks six times and needs just one more win to hold the record outright as the most successful trainer in this Group One.

He’s probably not got as strong a hand as he normally has with his Epsom Oaks winner – Tuesday – now a non-runner, so will be relying on History, Emily Dickinson and Toy.

History is sure to attract some each-way players as she was only beaten 3 1/4 lengths behind Magical Lagoon in the Ribblesdale, while Emily Dickinson was a close second over 1m6f last time out in the G3 Stanerra Stakes at Leopardstown, so we know she stays further than this 1m4f trip.

It’s interesting though that their main jockey – Ryan Moore – has decided to ride TOY @ 13/2 with BoyleSports. As a result this 3 year-old Galileo filly has come in for a bit of support, but barring a win over 7f at Cork back in April she’s yet to set the world alight.

She was last seen being well beaten in France in the Prix de Diane Longines, but Moore, who has won the Irish Oaks twice in the past, must feel there is more to come and if all 8 remaining Irish Oaks runenrs stand their ground this one is sure to attract the each-way value hunters.

Irish Oaks Best Of The Rest

I’ve already mentioned the O’Brien runners, but other of interest of the biggest-priced runenrs is the Ger Lyons-trained CAIRDE GO DEO @ 11/2 with BoyleSports.

Antepost tips from the 2022 Irish Oaks betting include Cairde Go DeoCairde Go Deo gets the nod as the best outsider. She’s clearly on the up after wins at Navan and Leopardstown in Listed races and we know she stays this trip well with those successes coming over 1m5f and 1m4f.

Yes, she’ll need to improve again now upped to the top table, but has been winning her races from the front under jockey Colin Keane and might just be able to run the finish out of some of these with similar tactics. Add in that she’s been freshened up with 44 days off and that she’s also a proven course winner (7f), then of those at bigger prices she looks the most interesting.

Favourites Have A 37% Strike-rate In The Last 19 Runnings

The first key trend in favour of the new Irish Oaks favourite – Magical Lagoon – is that we’ve seen 37% of the last 19 Irish Oaks winners go in. That’s 7 of the last 19 market leaders being successful and three in the last 10 runnings, including 12 months ago with the short-priced Snowfall winning.


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Irish Oaks 2022 Latest Betting, Runners and Probability Of Winning

Irish Oaks Horse Latest Odds Win Probability Bookmaker
MAGICAL LAGOON 6/5 44% logo boylesports
EMILY DICKINSON 11/2 15% logo boylesports
CAIRDE GO DEO 11/2 15% logo boylesports
TOY 13/2 13% logo boylesports
HISTORY 8/1 11% logo boylesports
FENNELA 16/1 6% logo boylesports
SHOW OF STARS 16/1 6% logo boylesports

All odds correct as of 08:11 BST on Sat, 16 July and subject to change

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Irish Oaks Recent Winners

  • 2021 – SNOWFALL (2/7 fav)
  • 2020 – EVEN SO (10/1)
  • 2019 – STAR CATCHER (7/2)
  • 2018 – SEA OF CLASS (11/4)
  • 2017 – ENABLE (2/5 fav)
  • 2016 – SEVENTH HEAVEN (14/1)
  • 2015 – COVERT LOVE (7/1)
  • 2014 – BRACELET (10/1)
  • 2013 – CHICQUITA (9/2)
  • 2012 – GREAT HEAVENS (5/4 fav)

Watch Snowfall Winning The 2021 Irish Oaks

2022 Curragh Race Times and Schedule | Sat 16th July

  • 1:30 – Juddmonte Farms Expert Eye Irish EBF (C & G) Maiden (2yo) 7f RTV
  • 2:03 – Jebel Ali Racecourse And Stables Anglesey Stakes (Group 3) (2yo) 6½f RTE1
  • 2:35 – Paddy Power Scurry Handicap (Premier Handicap) (3yo+) 6½f RTE1
  • 3:10 – Barberstown Castle Sapphire Stakes (Group 2) (3yo+) 5f RTE1
  • 3:45 – Juddmonte Irish Oaks (Group 1) (Fillies) (3yo) 1m4f ITV
  • 4:20 – Kildare Village Ladies Derby Handicap (4yo+) 1m4f RTE1
  • 4:50 – DMG Media Nursery Handicap (2yo) 6f RTV
  • 5:25 – TaxAssist Accountants Kildare-South Irish EBF Fillies Maiden (3yo+) 1m RTV

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