Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew’s stats -based approach to betting has uncovered a host of winners for this column and he has more punting angles for Monday’s horse racing cards.
Andrew was in good form over the weekend with three Saturday winners (15-2, 5-2 and 6-5) and he has selections at Hereford, Kempton, Plumpton and Wolverhampton on Monday November 1st:
LUSCIFER (system – Kempton AW draw, handicaps of 1m+)
Those drawn in stalls 1, 2 or 3 have struggled over the longer trips (1m+) in big fields (9+ runners) on Kempton’s Polytrack recently and we could have made money by simply backing all those drawn in stall 4 or higher. This can obviously throw up a huge number of bets per race but it still helps us to eliminate some of the fancied runners. Since the beginning of May this year, had we simply bet all runners drawn 4 or higher in big-field Kempton handicaps over 1m or further we’d have won 33 of our 257 bets and made a profit of £118.95 to a £1 level stake at SP. The interesting one in today’s opening 1m handicap is Tony Carroll’s LUSCIFER (stall 8). He hasn’t had many opportunities on Polytrack, looks well handicapped and has the assistance of Hollie Doyle.
ISTORIUS (system – Venetia Williams young handicap chasers in November)
Venetia Williams has a fantastic record with her handicap chasers at this time of year and has we simply bet all those aged eight or younger in November we’d have won 83 of our 376 bets this century (22.1% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £184.26 to a £1 level stake at SP. Five-year-old ISTORIUS has hardly set the world alight over hurdles but could be worth chancing at a big price on his chase debut.
FRENCHY DU LARGE (systems – chase debutants under top weight in handicaps & Venetia Williams November handicap chasers)
The Venetia Williams-trained FENCHY DU LARGE qualifies on the same angle as stablemate Istorius (see Plumpton 2.15) and it’s also interesting to see him make his chase debut under top eight in a handicap rather than run in a beginners’ or novices’ chase. The right-handed track is a slight concern but he has the prominent running style that is so effective at Hereford and he can make all.
OUTBOX (system – Frankel 4yo+ on the AW)
Older progeny of Frankel have a fine record on the all-weather over 1m4f or further, with those aged four plus landing 29 of their 101 starts for a profit of £34.41 to a £1 level stake at SP. Pace angle OUTBOX wasn’t far behind current favourite Hamish when fourth here on his penultimate start and has since finished second in a Swedish Group 3. Hollie Doyle knows him well and he could cause an upset.
INEXPLICABLE (system – Antony Brittain runners is a first-time visor)
Antony Brittain’s first-time visored runners are showing a profit of £37.00 to a £1 level stake at SP since the start of last year and though it’s a small sample size (three winners from ten runners) four of the beaten horses made the frame and it could be worth supporting his INEXPLICABLE each-way to small stakes.
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