Andrew Mount’s latest horse racing betting tips column has four fancies for this Tuesday. After over 20 years in the industry, this broadcaster, journalist and tipster has a few aces up his sleeve. Andrew writes regularly for the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus tips for GG.co.uk. He’s also a pundit on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV. Andrew takes a statistical angle to betting and this produces ingenious systems!
Andrew’s four fancies run at Ayr, Worcester and Wolverhampton, so that’s something for everyone. See more details about them and why you should back them here:
1.35 – COPPER QUEEN (system – Kevin Ryan, first run after a wind operation)
COPPER QUEEN hasn’t shown much in three starts this season, but her best juvenile form came on soft/heavy ground at this time of year. With rain around, she might be able to cause an upset in this 6f handicap. She’s undergone wind surgery since her latest outing.
Trainer Kevin Ryan has a solid record with three-year-olds on their first start after this procedure, scoring with six of the 31 qualifiers for a profit of £11.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those running in sprints (5-6f) won six of their 17 starts for a profit of £25.63.
2.10 – BELLE OF ANNANDALE (system – Keith Dalgleish second-time out 2yos)
BELLE OF ANNANDALE showed obvious signs of inexperience here on her debut, finishing a 12-length seventh of 12 at 40-1 after a slow start. That’s typical of Keith Dalgleish juvenile newcomers, but they often take a big step forward on their second start.
Simply backing the yard’s second-time out two-year-olds who had finished in the top seven on their debuts would have found 32 winners from 145 runners since 2014 (22.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £70.65 to a £1 level stake at SP. At today’s venue this system has thrown up seven winners from 24 bets in the same period for a profit of £22.70.
4.28 – GERBOISE BORGET (system – owner JP McManus, low-grade jumps handicaps)
Owner JP McManus has a great record in low-grade jumps handicaps in Britain. Had we bet all his runners in Class 5 company in the past 15 years, we would have found 101 winners from 442 bets (23% strike-rate) for a profit of £124.52 to a £1 level stake at SP. GERBOISE BORGET caught the eye when repeatedly denied a clear run at Uttoxeter last time, so can get off the mark in this conditional jockeys’ contest.
8.30 – SHINING SUCECSS (system – poorly drawn on Lingfield’s AW last time out)
SHINING SUCCESS was only fourth to the re-opposing Aramis Grey when the pair meet at Lingfield 17 days ago, but she challenged on the ‘dead’ rail on the inside of the track. The winner came wide on the quickest part of the course, meanwhile.
Aramis Grey was favourite at the time of writing, but there’s a good chance she was flattered by that effort and Shining Success can reverse the form. She’s yet to race on Tapeta but her sire, Awtaad, has a good record with his runners at this venue. The surface switch shouldn’t pose a problem for this dual Polytrack winner.
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