Andrew Mount’s daily horse racing betting tips column looks at the best of this Saturday’s action. After more than 20 years in the industry, this broadcaster, journalist and tipster has a few successful systems up his sleeve. Andrew writes for the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus tips for GG.co.uk. Hear his insight and opinion on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV where he’s a regular pundit. Andrew takes a stats driven approach and this produces betting systems that really work!
After tipping a 9/1 winner yesterday, Andrew has more selections with picks from Chester, Newmarket, Market Rasen, The Curragh and Chelmsford. Read all about his fancies below:
4.55 – GALAH (system – Ralph Beckett runners in first-time blinkers)
In-form Ralph Beckett has a good record with his first-time blinkered handicap runners, scoring with 18 of the 76 qualifiers since the beginning of 2016 (23.7% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £79.73 to £1. GALAH looks sure to go forward in the first-time headgear and could prove hard to catch.
5.25 – AURIFEROUS (systems – Andrew Balding Chester & Golden Horn 3yos August onwards)
Andrew Balding runners are profitable to follow at Chester, landing 85 of their 415 starts (20.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £77.59 to the usual £1 stake. AURIFEROUS is a ten-race maiden but progeny of Golden Horn tend to improve with age and distance, often not reaching their potential until the second half of their three-year-old season.
He’s found 1m 4f on the short side since running third over 1m6f at Haydock in July and the step back up in trip will suit. Throw in his front-running style on a track that strongly favours such tactics and he looks a solid favourite.
3.40 – TRAIS FLUORS (system – Mick Channon autumn handicappers)
Hundred Isles was only fifth of 14 at Goodwood on Wednesday when I first discussed this system, but backing the yard’s handicap runners at this time of year remains a very profitable angle. TRAIS FLUORS was only fifth at Doncaster last time but the ground would have been slower than ideal and his last win came on good to firm ground off today’s mark of 92. Friday’s racing suggests that his high draw could prove advantageous, so he’s worth a speculative each-way bet at around the 33-1 mark.
4.50 – EIDIKOS (system – Ed Bethell handicap debutants, recent run)
The Bethell yard do well with handicap debutants, especially those who are race fit (raced within the last 28 days). Since the start of 2010, they’ve saddle nine winners from 53 qualifiers on this system for a profit of £52.75. EIDIKOS was an early mover (14-1 from 20-1) when the betting opened for this fillies’ nursery and she looks well berthed in stall 11.
4.10 – STORMY GIRL (system – Paddy Twomey ‘switchers’)
Horses who move from other yards have a great record at the first time of asking for Paddy Twomey, winning eight of their 18 starts since the spring of 2016 (44.4% strike-rate, +£17.99 to a £1 level stake at SP). STORMY GIRL is the latest qualifier.
3.55 – OSCAR MONTEL (system – Charlie Longdson September runners)
OSCAR MONTEL caught the eye at Stratford on his penultimate start, finishing a narrow second on a track that didn’t favour his come-from-behind style. The steady pace was against him when filling the same position at Worcester next time and, with this race likely to be run to suit, he can further enhance his trainer’s excellent September record of 57 winners from 221 runners (26%, +£69.10, prior to yesterday’s racing).
7.30 – GARTH ROCKETT (system – sire Delegator on the AW)
Progeny of Delegator haven’t got the greatest record on Southwell’s now defunct Fibresand, but they do well at the other All-Weather venues, especially those aged three and older. This system has produced 86 winners from 613 runners (14% strike-rate) for a profit of £193.13 to a £1 level stake at SP.
The well backed Delicate Kiss ran a good race at Lingfield on Tuesday when I first discussed this system, finishing second at 7-1, and perhaps GARTH ROCKETT can go one better here. He’s well drawn in stall 2 and his five previous visits to Chelmsford have seem him record form figures of 13111 (4-5).
8.30 – LA ROCA DEL FUEGO (system – Rock Of Gibraltar Chelmsford draw angle)
Offspring of Rock Of Gibraltar do well at the Essex venue, winning 22 of their 117 starts (18.8% strike-rate), though we’d have made a tiny loss (-£0.95) by supporting them blindly at SP. However, Chelmsford is a strong draw bias track and had we only sided with those drawn in stall 6 or lower we’d have turned that loss into a profit of £21.55. LA ROCA DEL FUEGO made all over 6f here last time, is well drawn in stall 2, and can follow up despite dropping down to the minimum trip.
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