Andrew Mount’s daily horse racing betting tips column is back for another busy Friday of action on the track. After more than 20 years in the industry, this broadcaster, journalist and tipster knows value when he sees it. Andrew writes for the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, plus tips for GG.co.uk. Tune in to his analysis and insight on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV where he’s a regular pundit. Andrew loves a stats driven approach to his betting systems that really work!
Among Andrew’s picks today are selections from Dundalk in Ireland, Haydock, Newcastle, York and Worcester. Discover which horses appeal and why below:
6.15 – SALONICA (system – sire Showcasing crossed with Dansili)
When the sire Showcasing is crossed with Dansili (damsire), the results are impressive. This combination in a horse’s pedigree has 13 winners from 49 runners (26.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £37.01 to a £1 level stake at SP. On Polytrack only, that improves to 11 from 33 (+£47.76). Ger Lyons runner SALONICA looks a likely improver now switched to the All-Weather for her second career start.
3.10 – STARGAZER (system – Canford Cliffs Flat runners in first-time cheekpieces on fast ground)
The combination of good/faster going and first-time cheekpieces has often brought about improvement from progeny of Canford Cliffs, with six winners from 36 runners for a profit of £89.88 to the usual £1 stake. STARGAZER, whose last win came in a Class 2 contest at this meeting last year, looks very interesting now back down to Class 4 level.
3.45 – SOLENT GETAWAY (System – Jane Elliott riding for Tom Dascombe)
Jockey Jane Elliott has a good record when riding for her boss Tom Dascombe on turf, scoring on 34 of her 206 mounts (16.5%) for a profit of £52.60 to a £1 level stake at SP. She’s getting more opportunities now Richard Kingscote has moved on. SOLENT GETAWAY, who Elliott steered to victory at Chester last time, could be the way to go despite the yard going through a quiet spell.
8.00 – REDESDALE REBEL (system – Mayson progeny in first-time cheekpieces on the all-weather)
Progeny of Mayson have an eight form 36 record when fitted with first-time cheekpieces on the All-Weather for a profit of £39.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Over trips of 5f-7f only, that improves to seven from 24 (+£44.25). Course and distance winner REDESDALE REBEL has struggled over longer trips since his reappearance success at Thirsk over 6f, so looks set to benefit from an almost seven-week break.
5.25 – GALIDERMES (systems – Jo Mason riding for William Bethell, oppose John & Thady Gosden in apprentice handicaps)
Surprisingly, the Gosden yard is 0-20 in apprentice handicaps this century, so it might be worth opposing Mount Marcy – the 5-2 favourite for this 1m 4f contest at the time of writing. With 3-1 co-second favourites Cozone and Topanticipation both proving difficult to win with, it may pay to side with GALIDERMES. Joanna Mason is four from 12 when riding for the William Bethell yard for a profit of £28.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
4.35 – ROQUE IT (system – Paul Nicholls, first start after a wind operation, 2m 4f or shorter)
Paul Nicholls’ good record with his runners on their first start back after wind surgery is well documented, but it’s the shorter distances over which they do best. In races beyond 2m 4f, his first-time wind op qualifiers are just seven from 57 (12.3% strike-rate) for a loss of £34.18 to a £1 level stake at SP. However, those running over shorter won 32 of their 88 starts (36.4%) for a profit of £37.45. ROQUE IT has proved expensive to follow since joining Nicholls from Olly Murphy, but today could be when to catch him.
5.07 – LONG CALL (system – time of year)
Some horses thrive at certain times of year, and August/September seems to be when to side with LONG CALL. Had we backed him during these two months we would have won four of our 12 bets and made a profit of £18.50 at SP. He’s just one from 35 outside of this period and went close off a similar mark when last running in a hurdle race.
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