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July Cup 2022 Tips, Trends and Horses Winning Probability

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Godolphin

The July Cup 2022 is the feature race on the final day of the Newmarket July Festival this Saturday (9th July) and we look set for a ‘must-see’ contest with recent Royal Ascot scorers – Perfect Power and Naval Crown – two of the big names entered. Andy Newton takes a look at the latest betting, each horses probability of winning and the main 2022 July Cup trends.

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RELATED: Newmarket Races Today – Racecards, results, tips and latest betting


What Time Is The 2022 July Cup?

🕙Time: 4:25pm (UK time)
📅Date: Saturday 9th July 2022
🏇Racecourse: Newmarket Races
💰 Winner: £356,422 (Group One)
📺 TV: RacingTV, ITV


DID YOU KNOW? 19 of the last 20 July Cup winners aged 5 or younger, while 15 of the last 20 were UK-trained and ran at Royal Ascot last time out.


July Cup Trends and Stats

Help find the winner of this Saturday’s 2022 July Cup at Newmarket using our key trends and stats

  • 19/20 – Aged 5 or younger
  • 18/20 – Had won over 6f before
  • 17/20 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 16/20 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
  • 15/20 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
  • 15/20 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
  • 15/20 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
  • 12/20 – Placed last time out
  • 9/20 – Ran last time out in either the King’s Stand Stakes or Diamond Jubilee
  • 9/20 – Unplaced favourites
  • 8/20 – Won their previous race
  • 5/20 – Winning favourites
  • 4/20 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 4 winners)
  • The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 8/1
  • Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
  • Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019)

Perfect Power Our 2022 July Cup Tip

perfect power

The Richard Fahey-trained PERFECT POWER @11/4 with 10bet is set to go off as the 2022 July Cup favourite and after a top win in the Group One Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot last month it’s easy to see why.

This 3 year-old had been tried over a mile in the 2000 Guineas at the end of April but didn’t seem to last home that day. He’s won over 7f so that seems his limit, but over this 6f trip – where he stays on powerfully – this looks his best distance.

He’s now won his last three tries over 6f and regular rider, Christophe Soumillon is making the trip over to ride – the Belgium jockey is 4-from-5 on the horse.

Having also already won three Group One races we know he can deliver at the highest level, plus being a 3 year-old gets a handy 6lb weight pull with three of his main rivals – Artorius, Creative Force and Naval Crown.

BACK PERFECT POWER @ 11/4 with 10bet


July Cup 2022 – Best Of The Rest

Aidan OBrien

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the July Cup 5 times in the past so his runner Cadamosto can’t be ruled out of those at bigger prices, but does have just over 2 lengths to find with Perfect Power on their runs in the Commonwealth Cup last time.

Aussie raider – Artorius – looks Perfect Power’s main threat based on the betting. He was a close third to Naval Crown in the Platinum Jubilee at Royal Ascot last time out and with that coming off a 3 month break should be much sharper this time. He does have to give 6lbs away to Perfect Power though.

Godolphin silksThe Godolphin camp have a string hand too. They run the already mentioned Naval Crown, who won the Platinum Jubilee Stakes last time and their other runner – Creative Force – was runner-up in that same race. So, with just a neck and 1/2 a length between the first three home in that Group One, you really can make a case for them all against Perfect Power.

However, the fact the trio all have to give 6lbs away to the Fahey horse just swings it for me.

Former Coronation Stakes winner – Alcohol Free – is another to note, but seems to have lost his way a bit this season, while the Michael Owen-owned Flaming Rib will have his backers too after running second to Perfect Power last time at Royal Ascot (1 1/4 lengths).

Finally, with 19 of the last 20 July Cup winners aged 5 or younger, then the two 6 year-olds in the race – Romantic Proposal and Emaraaty Ana – will have this key stat to overcome.

Favourites Have A 25% Strike-rate In The Last 20 Runnings

perfect power

We’ll have to see nearer the off time which horse is going to go off as the 2022 July Cup favourite, but at this stage it looks a straight shootout between Perfect Power and the Aussie runner – Artorius.

The former looks the more likely to edge it, but with only around a point difference in the betting this can change very quickly. The ‘good new’ though is that whichever horse goes off as the July Cup jolly it means they’ve got around a 25% chance of winning based on the recent performances of the market leader in this race (last 20 runnings).

75% Of The Last 20 July Cup Winners Ran At Royal Ascot

Most of the July Cup runners fit the bill here, including the five in the betting – Perfect Power, Artorius, Creative Force, Naval Crown and Flaming Rib – but it’s still a key trend to have on your radar with Romantic Proposal and King Hermes two that DIDN’T run at Royal Ascot last time out.


July Cup 2022 Latest Betting, Runners and Probability Of Winning


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July Cup Horse Latest Odds Win Probability Bookmaker
PERFECT POWER 11/4 27% 10bet logo new
CREATIVE FORCE 5/1 17% 10bet logo new
NAVAL CROWN 5/1 17% 10bet logo new
ARTORIUS 11/2 15% 10bet logo new
ROMANTIC PROPOSAL 9/1 10% 10bet logo new
FLAMING RIB 11/1 8% 10bet logo new
ALCOHOL FREE 14/1 7% 10bet logo new
HAPPY ROMANCE 16/1 6% 10bet logo new
TWILIGHT JET 22/1 4.5% 10bet logo new
CADAMOSTO 25/1 4% 10bet logo new
KING HERMES 33/1 3% 10bet logo new
EMARAATY ANA 40/1 2.5% 10bet logo new
DOUBLE OR BUBBLE 50/1 2% 10bet logo new
BLACKROD N/R 0% 10bet logo new

All odds correct as of 09:44 BST on Sat 9 July and subject to change


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Recent July Cup Winners

  • 2021     Starman (9/2)
  • 2020     Oxted (12/1)
  • 2019     Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
  • 2018     U S Navy Flag (8/1)
  • 2017     Harry Angel (9/2)
  • 2016     Limato (9/2 fav)
  • 2015     Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
  • 2014     Slade Power (7/4 fav)
  • 2013     Lethal Force (9/2)
  • 2012     Mayson (20/1)

Watch Starman Winning The 2021 July Cup

2022 Newmarket July Festival Race Times and Schedule

Newmarket July Festival: Saturday  9th July 2022

  • 1:30 – Rossdales British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB Race) Cl3 (2yo) 7f RTV
  • 2:05 – Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f ITV
  • 2:40 – bet365 Mile Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m ITV
  • 3:15 – bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV
  • 3:50 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV
  • 4:25 – Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV
  • 5:00 – Discover Newmarket Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m4f RTV
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