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John Smith’s Cup 2022 Tips, Trends and Horses Winning Probability

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The John Smith’s Cup 2022 is the main race at York races this Saturday (9th July) as we get set for another ultra-competitive renewal of what is the longest commercial sponsored flat race in the UK. Andy Newton takes a look at the latest betting, each horses probability of winning and the main 2022 July Cup trends.

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What Time Is The 2022 John Smith’s Cup?

🕙Time: 4:05pm (UK time)
📅Date: Saturday 9th July 2022
🏇Racecourse: York Races
💰 Winner: £103,080
📺 TV: RacingTV, ITV


DID YOU KNOW? Trainer Andrew Balding has won the John Smith’s Cup twice in the last three years.


John Smith’s Cup Cup Trends and Stats

Help find the winner of this Saturday’s 2022 John Smith’s Cup at York races using our key trends and stats

  • 18/20 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 18/20 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
  • 17/20 – Aged 5 or younger
  • 14/20 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
  • 13/20 – Came from stall 9 or higher
  • 13/20 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 13/20 – Carried 9-3 or less
  • 11/20 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
  • 11/20 – Aged 4 years-old
  • 11/20 – Officially rated between 99-105
  • 10/20 – Had run at York before
  • 6/20 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
  • 3/20 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
  • 3/20 – Trained by William Haggas
  • 2/20 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni (2 of last 9)
  • 2/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
  • Since 1960 just one winner older than 6
  • 9 of the last 11 winners aged 4 or 5
  • The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 12/1

Rogue Bear Is Our 2022 John Smith’s Cup Tip

rogue bear1

This year’s John Smith’s Cup is super competitive as always, but there are some fair trends to help. 17 of the last 20 winners were aged 5 or younger, which is bad news for Caradoc, Intellogent and Cockalorum, who are all 7 year-olds.

The William Haggas yard has won 2 of the last 9 runnings so it’s no shock to see their Mahrajaan popular in the betting, but draw 5 might not be ideal.

The consistent Anmaat is another to note, but does have 9-8 to carry, but ROGUE BEAR (e/w) @ 6/1 with 10Bet, who was ony just denied here at York last time out, ticks a lot of boxes with draw 14 a plus, his age (4) and a nice racing weight of 8-10. With 13 of the last 20 winners carriying 9-3 or less and coming from stall 9 or higher.

He’s only up 2lbs from that last run but connections have also freshened him up with 2 months off and this has looked the target since that last outing, when well-backed into favourite.

BACK ROGUE BEAR (e/w) @ 6/1 with 10Bet


John Smith’s Cup 2022 – Best Outsiders To Bet On

good birthday1

Of the rest, the Andrew Balding yard have won 2 of the last 3 runnings so their GOOD BIRTHDAY (e/w) @ 33/1 with 10Bet and ACHELOIS (e/w) @ 18/1 with 10Bet are the picks of those at bigger prices. Good Birthday is a consistent 6 year-old that has a nice draw in 23 and only has 8-11 to carry. Connections have also booked William Cox to ride to take off another 3lbs, while he’s finished in the top 3 in 45% of his 31 races (5 wins).

Achelois ran too bad to be true in a Listed race at Ayr last time so if you can forgive that run then based on his second at Epsom the time before can go well too. He’s also got the useful Harry Davies on to claim 5lbs and connections have also freshened him up with a few months off.

85% Of The Last 20 John Smith’s Cup Winners Were Aged 5 or Younger

A huge stat to take into the race and although most will fit this age trend there are still a few that it knocks out, including a few well-fancied sorts – Caradoc, Intellogent, Cockalorum and What’s The Story, who are all 7 or 8 year-olds.

13 Of The Last 20 John Smith’s Cup Winners Carried 9st 3lbs or Les and Came From Stalls 9 or Higher

This trends works out at 65%, so not too shabby either. But if you combine the two stats (plus add these to the above mentioned age trend), then this will again draw a line through several of the 2022 John Smith’s Cup runners.

The horses that tick both these stats are Mahrajaan, Just Fine, Forest Falcon, The City’s Phantom, Good Birthday, Rogue Bear, Jewel In My Crown, First View and the reserve Love Is Golden.


John Smith’s Cup 2022 Latest Betting, Runners and Probability Of Winning


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John Smith’s Cup Horse Latest Odds Win Probability Bookmaker
MAHRAJAAN 5/1 17% 10bet logo new
ROGUE BEAR 6/1 14% 10bet logo new
BRILLIANT LIGHT 15/2 12% 10bet logo new
INTELLOGENT 8/1 11% 10bet logo new
ANMAAT 9/1 10% 10bet logo new
JUST FINE 11/1 8% 10bet logo new
FIRST VIEW 11/1 8% 10bet logo new
LA TRINIDAD 12/1 7.7% 10bet logo new
CARADOC 14/1 7% 10bet logo new
GREATGADIAN 14/1 7% 10bet logo new
ACHELOIS 18/1 5% 10bet logo new
JEWEL IN MY CROWN 18/1 5% 10bet logo new
CERTAIN LAD 18/1 5% 10bet logo new
CHICHESTER 20/1 4.8% 10bet logo new
BARRYSHNIKOV 22/1 4.2% 10bet logo new
SPIRIT DANCER 25/1 4% 10bet logo new
FOREST FALCON 28/1 3% 10bet logo new
GOOD BIRTHDAY 33/1 3 10bet logo new
WHAT’S THE STORY 33/1 3% 10bet logo new
COCKALORUM 40/1 3% 10bet logo new
MARIE’S DIAMOND 50/1 2% 10bet logo new
THE CITY’S PHANTOM 66/1 1.5% 10bet logo new
LOVE IS GOLDEN (Res) N/R 0% 10bet logo new

All odds correct as of 09:55 BST on Fri, 9 July and subject to change


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Recent John Smith’s Cup Winners

  • 2021 – Johnny Drama (22/1) Andrew Balding
  • 2020 – Sinjaari (11/1) William Haggas
  • 2019 – Pivoine (14/1) Andrew Balding
  • 2018 – Euchen Glen (20/1) Jim Goldie
  • 2017 – Ballet Concerto (8/1) Sir Michael Stoute
  • 2016 – Educate (18/1) Ismail Mohammed
  • 2015 – Master Carpenter (14/1) Rod Millman
  • 2014 – Farraaj (6/1) Roger Varian
  • 2013 – Danchai (10/1) William Haggas
  • 2012 – King’s Warrior (10/1) Peter Chapple-Hyam
  • 2011 – Green Destiny (6/1) W Haggas

Watch Johnny Drama Winning The 2021 John Smith’s Cup

York Race Times and Schedule: Saturday 9th July 2022

  • 1:45 – John Smith’s Racing Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV
  • 2:20 – John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV
  • 2:55 – John Smith’s Stayers’ Handicap Cl4 (4yo+ 0-80) 2m½f RTV
  • 3:30 – John Smith’s Nursery Handicap Cl4 (2yo 0-85) 6f RTV
  • 4:05 – John Smith’s Cup Handicap Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV
  • 4:40 – John Smith’s City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f ITV
  • 5:15 – John Smith’s Sprint Handicap Cl4 (4yo+ 0-80) 6f RTV