Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew found two winners and a 14-1 second from his three picks on Thursday and has four more on Friday, July 8th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
YAHSAT & THE PLATINUM QUEEN (system – badly drawn in the Queen Mary last time out)
High draws have dominated in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot in recent years, with those badly berthed (defined as stall 12 or lower in a race that often features 20+ runners) often winning next time. Since the beginning of 2017, 18 of the 57 qualifiers won(31.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £24.17. Two of them do battle in this 5f fillies’ novice contest – YAHSAT, 11th from stall 3 of 21 at Royal Ascot, and THE PLATINUM QUEEN, 13th from stall 2. YAHSAT had two and a half lengths to spare over the Fahey runner at Ascot and may be able to confirm the form, so the straight forecast could be the way to tackle this race. MAYLANDSEA, who runs in the 2.25 at Newmarket, also qualifies on this angle today.
ATRIUM (system – ‘Britannia flops’)
The Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot – a hugely competitive handicap for three-year-olds run over the straight mile – is often a good source of future winners. Since 2007, those who were relatively fancied (14-1 or shorter) who flopped in that race – defined as finishing 8th or worse – had a 16 from 60 record on their next start (26.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £51.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. ATRIUM, 13th of 30 when a 14-1 shot for the Britannia, won over course and distance on his penultimate start and will find this easier.
FELIX NATALIS (system -Tom Dascombe, restricted novice races)
Tom Dascombe has a six from 17 record in restricted novice contests, with those who’d already had racecourse experience recording form figures of 11111137762 (6-11) for a profit of £33.66. The three unplaced horses were all big prices (25-1, 28-1 and 33-1). Yesterday, I highlighted the claims of Queen Of Uplands on this angle at Newbury and she ran a solid second at 14-1. FELIX NATALIS, a general 22-1 shot at the time of writing, might be able to out-run his odds.
ALCAZAN (system – Al Kazeem, 4yo+, recent run)
Progeny of the sire Al Kazeem take time to mature, and had we backed all those aged four or older, who were returned to the track within six weeks of their previous outing, we’d have won ten of our 49 bets and made a profit of £38.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. ALCAZAN (stall 5 of 8) could have been better drawn but he possesses bags of early speed and might still be able to get across to the inside rail. SILENT FLAME also qualifies on this system in the 7.15 at Chepstow tonight.
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