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Falmouth Stakes 2022 Trends, Tips and Horses Winning Probability

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Inspiral

The Falmouth Stakes 2022 is the feature race on the second day of the Newmarket July Festival this Friday (8th July) and all eyes will be on the Frankie Dettori-ridden INSPIRAL, who is the red-hot favourite for the race after five straight wins. Andy Newton takes a look at the latest betting, each horses probability of winning and the main Falmouth Stakes trends.

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What Time Is The 2022 Falmouth Stakes?

🕙Time: 3:35pm (UK time)
📅Date: Friday 8th July 2022
🏇Racecourse: Newmarket Races
💰 Winner: £141,775
📺 TV: RacingTV, ITV


DID YOU KNOW? Frankie Dettori has only won the Falmouth Stakes once before – in 2008 on the Mark Johnston-trained Nahoodh.


Falmouth Stakes Trends and Stats

Help find the winner of this Friday’s 2022 Falmouth Stakes using our key trends and stats

  • 19/20 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
  • 19/20 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
  • 16/20– Won over at least 1 mile previously
  • 16/20 – Had 2+ runs that season
  • 15/20 – Won from stall 5 or lower
  • 15/20 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  • 15/20 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
  • 11/20 – Favourites placed
  • 7/20 – Favourites  that won (1 joint)
  • 7/20 – Previous Group One winners
  • 7/20 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
  • 6/20 – Won their last race
  • 3/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 8)
  • 2/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 6 runnings)
  • 2/20 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of last 10 runnings)
  • 2/20 – Owned by the Cheveley Park Stud (2 of the last 8 runnings)

    Inspiral Will Be Very Hard To Beat In 2022 Falmouth Stakes

    Inspiral
    The John Gosden-trained INSPIRAL @ 1/6 with 10Bet will be many people’s Friday banker at Newmarket and it’s hard to make a case against that. She comes into the race unbeaten from five runs and returned to the track last month with an easy 4 3/4 length demolition job in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot.

    She’s also got Frankie Dettori riding and that didn’t look likely a few days ago as the Italian goes in search of his second Falmouth Stakes win. She’s also owned by Cheveley Park Stud, who like to target this race – winning it three times in the past – with the most recent Veracious in 2019.

    frankie Cheveley Park

    Inspiral is also rated 9lbs higher than her nearest rivals – Prosperous Voyage, Alcohol Free and Tenebrism, so even if she performs a tad under her normal level she’ll still have a fair bit in-hand.

    There is some talk of stepping Inspiral up in trip after this as she’s certainly looked as if she’ll stay further, but for now she’s going to be all the rage in for Friday’s Falmouth Stakes and if the betting is right we’ve around a 70% chance we’ll be seeing another famous Frankie flying dismount at around 3:45 on Friday.

    Of the rest, the Aidan O’Brien yard have won two of the last six Falmouth Stakes, but pulled out their intended runners earlier in the week so won’t have any horses in this year’s renewal.

    In fact, Inspiral will only have to face four other runners, with just 5 in the race at the final declaration stage. The French raider Sibila Spain was a head winner at Saint-Cloud and is the only other last time out winner in the race, but is still rated 10lbs lower than the hot favourite.

    Prosperous Voyage is the second highest rated at 112 and was the runner-up in the 1000 Guineas in May – but was since 9 lengths behind Inspiral last time out in the Coronation Stakes so have plenty of ground to make up in that running.

    Primo Bacio is useful on her day but you feel her level is more Group 3 or Listed, while course winner – Sandrine – makes up the five, but is rated 13lbs inferior to Inspiral.

    Frankie Has Just One Falmouth Stakes Win

    Jockey Ryan Moore has won three of the last eight runnings of the Falmouth Stakes, but surprisingly Frankie has just one win in this decent Group One Newmarket race. That came on the Mark Johnston-trained Nahoodh in 2008.

    However, with Inspiral @ 1/6 with 10bet the hot odds-on favourite for the 2022 Falmouth Stakes the 13 year run without success in this race for Frankie looks highly likely to end – at odds of 4/11 she’s got a 73% chance of wininng the 2022 Falmouth Stakes.

    Inspiral Can Give Cheveley Park Owners Their Fourth Falmouth Stakes Success

    The Falmouth Stakes is also a race that Inspiral’s owners – Cheveley Park Stud – like to win. They’ve won the Group One contest three times in total, with the first back in 1998 (Lovers Knot) and more recently in 2014 (Integral) and 2019 (Veracious).

    Trainer John Gosden Has Won The Falmouth Stakes Three Times

    The record of trainer John Gosden is also pretty similar to that of the Cheveley Park Stud. He’s also won the race three times, with the first coming back in 1997 (Ryafan) a year before the CPS won their first success in the race. He’s since followed up more recently with Elusive Kate (2013) and Nazeef (2020).

    Falmouth Stakes 2022 Latest Betting, Runners and Probability Of Winning

    Falmouth Stakes Horse Latest Odds Win Probability Bookmaker
    INSPIRAL 1/6 85% 10bet logo new
    SIBILA SPAIN 12/1 7.7% 10bet logo new
    PRIMO BACIO 16/1 6% 10bet logo new
    PROSPEROUS VOYAGE 16/1 6% 10bet logo new
    SANDRINE 16/1 6% 10bet logo new

    All odds correct as of 07:50 BST on Fri, 8 July and subject to change

Recent Falmouth Stakes Winners

  • 2021     Snow Lantern (6/1)
  • 2020     Nazeef (9/2)
  • 2019     Veracious (6/1)
  • 2018     Alpha Centauri (4/9 fav)
  • 2017     Roly Poly (6/4 fav)
  • 2016     Alice Springs (5/2)
  • 2015     Amazing Maria (17/2)
  • 2014     Integral (15/8 fav)
  • 2013     Elusive Kate (3/1)
  • 2012     Giofra (10/1)

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Watch Snow Lantern Winning The 2021 Falmouth Stakes

2022 Newmarket July Festival Race Times and Schedule

Newmarket July Festival: Thursday 7th July 2022

  • 1:20 – British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f RTV
  • 1:50 – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo) 1m5f ITV
  • 2:25 – Close Brothers July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV
  • 3:00 – Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 6f ITV
  • 3:35 – Princess Of Wales’s Close Brothers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV
  • 4:10 – Edmondson Hall Solicitors Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m RTV
  • 4:40 – Weatherbys Hamilton Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 1m RTV

Newmarket July Festival: Friday 8th July 2022

  • 1:15 – Weatherbys British EBF Maiden Stakes (Colts & Geldings) Cl3 (2yo) 7f RTV
  • 1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV
  • 2:25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored By bet365) (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV
  • 3:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV
  • 3:35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV
  • 4:10 – Arioneo Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 7f RTV
  • 4:45 – Moet & Chandon Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 5f RTV

Newmarket July Festival: Saturday 9th July 2022

  • 1:30 – Rossdales British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB Race) Cl3 (2yo) 7f RTV
  • 2:05 – Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f ITV
  • 2:40 – bet365 Mile Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m ITV
  • 3:15 – bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV
  • 3:50 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV
  • 4:25 – Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV
  • 5:00 – Discover Newmarket Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m4f RTV