Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew continued his fine form with 7-1 Leicester winner BABE ALICIOUS on Thursday and has five picks on Friday, July 14th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LIBERATED LAD (system Ian Williams, third or worse when visored first-time on turf latest)
Ian Williams has a good record with his first-time visored runners on turf but those that finish third or worse are often worth persevering with, winning ten from 47 at the next time of asking (whether the visor is retained, left off, or swapped for different headgear) for a profit of £69.60. LIBERATED LAD is blinkered this time and could build on last month’s Epsom third.
RED EVELYN (system – Garswood, 4yos)
Progeny of the sire Garswood take time to come to hand and had we simply bet all the four-year-olds on the Flat (turf or all-weather) we’d have won 37 of our 223 bets (16.6%) and made a profit of £108.53 to a £1 level stake at SP. The second half of the year is ideally when to catch them, and had we bet the four-year-olds from July to December only we’d have found 18 winners from 105 bets for a profit of £122.88. RED EVELEYN qualifies in this 7f handicap, as does ROYDMOOR in the 8.54 at Pontefract tonight.
VENTURA FLAME (system – stiff tracks)
VENTURA FLAME performs best on tracks with stiff uphill finishes (e.g. Beverley, Carlisle and Hamilton), winning seven of her 22 starts for a profit of £38.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. Her course record stands at 14112253 (3-8) and she ran a great race to finish second by a neck at 18-1 from a poor draw at Beverley last time.
PONS AELIUS (system – Mark Johnston, Newmarket summer handicaps)
Since the beginning of 2012, backing all Mark Johnston-trained handicappers at Newmarket during June, July and August (races run on the July Course apart from 2020 when the Rowley Mile was used because of the COVID-delayed start to the season) would have found 68 winners from 253 bets (19.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £72.14 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who’d had a run within the past four weeks and led or raced prominently on their latest outing were 52 from 231 (22.5%) for a profit of £98.68. PONS AELIUS qualifies on both angles.
DUCHESS RAVENWAVES (system – Gavin Cromwell, handicap chase debut, Class E or lower)
Gavin Cromwell has a good record with his handicap chase debutants, especially in Class E (the equivalent of Class 4 in Britain) or lower. Eight of the 25 qualifiers have scored for a profit of £30.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who finished in the top four last time out had form figures on their handicap chase debuts of 21111 (4-5) for a profit of £20.50. DUCHESS RAVENWAVES finished a respectable fourth in a mares beginners chase at Killarney last time and can take a step forward now handicapping.
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