Serious sports bettors do not believe in spring, summer, winter and fall. For us, it’s basketball season, baseball season and football season. But once the NFL’s regular play ends, and the Super Bowl nears, it becomes something else altogether: prop bet season.
Ordinarily, by this time of year, I avoid betting one team or another and step up the prop bets – that is, betting on the performances of particular players. With the bookies being hyper focused on a minuscule number of teams, it’s a good time to bet on what there’s a lot of, with the possibilities for soft lines.
That is where the prop bets come in. Two of them are below.
To be honest, I wasn’t planning on suggesting any spread bets. In fact, I was going to leave it with just two prop bets that I really like for this weekend. But then the lines started moving. Square money came in and that forced my hand. I had to bet on two teams.
But, as I advise below, bet a peanut on each game. If we win, it’ll add up to steak dinners for all. Or at least some good burgers.
Here’s to winning a couple of extra games and eating well on Sunday night.
Here are four bets I’m making this weekend.
Plus, for more picks and analysis, check out my website KrackWins.
KrackWins NFL Picks for Week 21
See below the best KrackWins NFL picks for week 21.
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Christian McCaffrey – running back for the San Francisco 49ers – Under 37.5 received yards
Christian McCaffrey is a gem. Outside of top quarterbacks, he is a most valuable player this season. When it comes to running the ball, he is great. Catching passes? He is good but not prolific.
Last week, he ran for 98 yards but made only 30 yards worth of pass receptions. And that was for seven passes. He only receives under passes, and they are real short.
More than 37 received yards really overstates things. McCaffrey will be getting fewer than seven passes on Sunday. We need to take the under.
Mecole Hardman Jr. – wide receiver for the Kansas City Chiefs – Under 1.5 receptions
Mecole Hardman Jr. was very inactive last week, with just one carry and one reception.
They just don’t go to him with the passes. They went to him four times in five games, and I just don’t see any passes going his way this weekend.
On top of everything else, he had a terrible fumble last Sunday, going from the red zone into the end zone. He made it and dropped the ball, which resulted in a touchback. It was unbelievable. I’m surprised that the kid is not scarred for life.
Detroit Lions +7 vs San Francisco 49ers
I think Detroit has the better quarterback in Jared Goff. Brock Purdy, San Francisco’s QB, looks better than he is because of his teammates’ athleticism.
The line moved to +7, which surprises me, and I don’t think it’s going to get any better. I suggest jumping on this one, but just bet a quarter of what you would normally put up.
Kansas City Chiefs +4 vs Baltimore Ravens
I have done so well on KC these last few weeks that when the line went from +3 to +4, well, I could not turn away.
Neither should you. But, as with the Detroit game, keep your bet trim, wagering just 25-percent of your norm. We’ll all be making like Taylor Swift and rooting for the great Patrick Mahomes on Sunday.
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