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Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Tuesday Picks – June 7th

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Andrew Mount's

Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…

Andrew heads to the meetings at Brighton and Chelmsford for his three selections on Tuesday, June 7th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:

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BRIGHTON 1.30

CONTINUATION (system – sire, James Garfield)

It’s still very early days for the sire James Garfield but the signs are encouraging, with his first crop landing five of their 11 starts so far for a profit of £31.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. They have a first-time out record In Britain of 151124 (3-6) and it could be worth chancing in-form Amy Murphy’s CONTINUATION to cause an upset.

 

BRIGHTON 2.00

BOOM THE GROOM (system – Tony Carroll, Brighton)

It’s common knowledge that Tony Carroll has a good record at Brighton but we wouldn’t have made a profit my backing his runners blind in recent seasons. Since the beginning of 2015, he’s 62 from 462 at the seaside venue (14.6% strike-rate) for a loss of £49.41 to a £1 level stake at SP. We can turn this into a profitable system by simply backing horses who finished second through sixth last time out. His last-time out winners are often over-bet and provide little in the way of value, whereas those who finished seventh or worse perhaps have something to prove regarding their current wellbeing. This leaves us with 47 winners from 254 bets in the study period (18.5%) for a profit of £29.61 (just under 12% on turnover). There are five qualifiers today, including likeable veteran BOOM THE GROOM who suggested he was still capable of winning a race when a 50-1 fifth of 11 at Bath last time. He’s drawn a blank from five runs here but was runner-up on three occasions, including by a nose and a short head, and he’s 10lb below his last winning mark).

 

CHELMSFORD 5.00

INDIAN DREAM (system – Michael Bell, second-time out 2yos)

Michael Bell has a good record with his second-time out two-year-olds on the all-weather, as long as they are given more than three weeks off to get over their debut efforts. Since the beginning of 2012, he’s won with seven of the 27 qualifiers for a very healthy profit of £100.68 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners just under 2). INDIAN DREAM fared best of those to come from off the pace when runner-up at Newmarket on last month’s debut and is bred to appreciate the switch to Polytrack. Eight of the qualifiers ran at Chelmsford and they recorded form figures of 14111142 (5-8) for a profit of £61.68.

 

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