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Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Saturday Picks – July 30th

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Andrew Mount's

Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…

Andrew has found winners at up to 22-1 this week and has seven picks across six races on Saturday, July 30th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:

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NEWMARKET 1.55

QUEEN OF UPLANDS & COMEDIAN LEADER (system – Newmarket fillies’ nursery weight angle)

This fillies’ nursery usually goes to a lowly-weighted runner (carrying 8-13 or less), who finished in the top four last time out. Since the 2013 renewal, the qualifiers are seven from 64 bets for a profit of £28.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. Ignoring those ridden by claimers improves the strike-rate to seven from 50 (+£42.75). COMEDIAN LEADER and QUEEN OF UPLANDS are the only qualifiers and I’m backing both.

NEWMARKET 2.25

TECHNIQUE (system – Freddie & Martyn Meade yard, first-time blinkers)

The Meade yard has a useful record with their first-time blinkered runners, with seven of the 27 qualifiers scoring for a profit of £23.00. TECHNIQUE could be worth chancing to bounce back from her modest fourth over course and distance last time.

THIRSK 3.48

GWEEDORE (system – sire Epaulette, Thirsk)

Progeny of the sire Epaulette have a decent record at Thirsk, landing six of their 36 starts for a profit of £30.00. GWEEDORE does most of his racing at Ayr but should be suit by this venue and looks well drawn (middle-to-high draws do best in big-field 1m handicaps here).

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THIRSK 4.20

DESERT GLORY (system – Churchill, second time out, top 4 on debut)

Progeny of the sire Churchill have a poor record on their racecourse debuts but those who finish in the top four do well next time out, winning ten of their 28 starts for a profit of £9.68. It might be stretching a point with DESERT GLORY, as he was beaten by 27 lengths into fourth of seven at Ripon on his debut, but he was backed from 10-1 into 5-1 and ran very green. In-form James Tate has a good record with his second-time out runners and he’s worth chancing at big odds (20-1 at the time of writing).

DONCASTER 5.10

KODEBREAKER (system – Kevin Ryan 3yos, first run after a wind operation)

Kevin Ryan has a solid record with his three-year-olds on their first run back after wind surgery, scoring with eight of the 37 qualifiers for a profit of £11.13. Those who started in the first four in the betting were seven from 17 for a profit of £21.13. KODEBREAKER finished third on soft ground at Ayr in May on his first start after a wind operation and went two places better at 12-1 next time. He took a backwards step at Newcastle last time, finishing ninth as the 7-2 favourite, but another wind operation could be the key.

LINGFIELD 8.15

PYRRHIC DANCER (system – Richard Hannon, second run since gelded)

Richard Hannon has a good recent record with his runners on their second start since being gelded, scoring with 22 of the 88 qualifiers since the beginning of 2018 for a profit of £61.20. PYRRHIC DANCER was only sixth over course and distance on last time but he was 22-1 and that run was probably needed. He’s worth chancing at big odds.

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