Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to great effect and shares his thoughts for Saturday’s racing below.
There’s some fantastic racing action on Saturday February 19th (both Haydock and Wincanton passed morning inspections) and Andrew has four recommended bets. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
FORTESCUE (system – field size)
Henry Daly’s FORTESCUE has a great record over fences in fields of 11 or fewer runners, recording form figures of 1211211323 (5-10) for a profit of £26.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. The latest third came at 16-1 in the Grade 2 Peter Marsh handicap chase when less than three lengths behind Cheltenham Gold Cup hope Royal Pagaille and he has sound each-way claims once more.
TRINCOMALEE (system – Lucy Wadham runners in February)
Lucy Wadham’s runners usually go well at this time of year and had we bet all of them in February, since the beginning of the year 2000, we’d have won 51 of our 325 bets (15.7% strike-rate) and made a profit of £33.18 to a £1 level stake at SP. The consistent TRINCOMALEE has form figures over hurdles of 332141321 (3-9), including a 4-1 Warwick win in 2020 on his only February outing.
OVERWORKDUNDERPAID (system – Laura Morgan chasers, claiming jockey)
Laura Morgan-trained chasers are profitable to back blind, with 44 winners from 213 runners (20.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £129.04 to a £1 level stake at SP. When her jockey claims a weight allowance the strike-rate improves to 21.7%, including a three from three haul so far in 2022 (+£9.33). OVERWORKDUNDERPAID might be able to cause a minor upset in this four-runner hunters’ chase (he was a best-priced 10-1 at the time of writing).
MIRRIE DANCERS (system – badly drawn at Southwell last time out)
Stall 3 made life very difficult for the Micky Hammond-trained MIRRIE DANCERS at Southwell last month and he could only finish tenth of the 12 runners. The 33-1 shot never left the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail until the race was all but over and that run, his first since July, was no doubt needed. His new yard has been in great form this year and the general 25-1 could be on the generous side here.
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