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Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Tuesday Picks – January 4th

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Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a former bookmaker, three-time Scoop6 winner and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew shares his latest stats-based selections below.

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Andrew went close with Noble Peace at Lingfield on Tuesday (beaten by two short-heads into third at 17-2) and has four selections on Tuesday January 4th. Follow his tips all year round on horse racing betting sites:

HEREFORD 2.50

KESTREL VALLEY (system – sire Dr Massini, young handicap chasers)

Simply backing all progeny of the sir Dr Massini, aged eight or younger, in handicap chases in Britain and Ireland would have found 119 winners from 715 runners (16.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £119.17 to a £1 level stake at SP. Stamina is a slight worry for Matt Shappard’s KESTREL VALLEY though the yard is flying, sending out three winners (15-2, 7-2 and 5-2) from four runners over the Christmas and New Year period (the other one was third), and she’s worth chancing at an each-way price.

Back KESTREL VALLEY at SBK

LINGFIELD 3.40

JUSTCOMINPASTY (system Robyn Brisland January runners)

Robyn Brisland has a 15.5% strike-rate with his all-weather runners in January for a profit of £52.47 to a £1 level stake at SP. Backing only the younger qualifiers (those aged three and four) would have found 11 winners from 60 bets for a profit of £71.00. He has six runners at Lingfield today, with JUSTCOMINPASTY interesting in this 1m4f Classified contest. She outran her 50-1 SP in a Wolverhampton maiden last month, finishing a close-up third, and early offers of around 28-1 could again underestimate her chances.

Bet on JUSTCOMINPASTY at SBK

NEWCASTLE 4.00

TYRRHENIAN SEA (system – Newcastle all-weather debut winners next time out)

The betting market still shows bias against all-weather form and horses who win on their racecourse debuts on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface have a solid record when bidding to follow up, landing 33 of their 101 starts for a profit of £16.54 at SP (or £36.27 if taking the best early price the night before racing). Roger Varian is three from three on this system and TYRRHENIAN SEA can make it four from four. His price is nothing to write home about but he’s one to include in multiples with any other short-priced ones you might fancy today.

Back TYRRHENIAN SEA at SBK

NEWCASTLE 6.30

WHITTLE LE WOODS (system – Mick Appleby stable switchers)

WHITTLE LE WOODS was a big eyecatcher at Hamilton last summer on his final start for Michael Dods, blasting off down the middle from stall 1 and doing really well to place third in a race dominated by high-drawn horses who came from off the pace. Mick Appleby is 80- from 463 with stable switchers for a profit of £292.42 to the usual £1 stake and Whittle Le Woods can make a winning start for new connections.

Back WHITTLE LE WOODS at SBK

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