Leading racing advisor, journalist and broadcaster Andrew Mount analyses Tuesday’s Spreadex markets to find the best value spread betting and fixed odds opportunities.
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Andrew heads to Lingfield (all-weather) and Southwell’s jumps card for three recommended bets/trades on Tuesday:
Horse Racing Betting Tips for Tuesday November 30th:
LINGFIELD DOUBLE DRAW
It’s still difficult to win around the inside of the track on the all-weather at Lingfield, putting those drawn very low at a disadvantage, especially over the shorter distances. Since the beginning of August, stalls 1, 2 and 3 have a combined record over 5f-1m of 101 winners from 851 runners (11.9%) for a loss of £252.38 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 114.26). Those drawn middle-to-high should enjoy an edge today and I’m going to buy ‘DOUBLE DRAW’ (the Spreadex market is currently set at 92-95). In the opening 2m handicap, the front three in the betting are drawn 13, 10 and 12 and we’ll be unfortunate not to rack up 20+ points and I have a strong feeling that FAIR AND SQUARE (stall 8) could be the one in the 5f nursery (12.10). William Haggas-trained newcomer YONAFIS (stall 9) looks a likely type in division one of the 1m maiden at 12.40, while Hugo Palmer’s UNILATERIALISM (stall 9) is a solid choice in division two. We have another four races after these and, with luck, we’ll be well on our way to a profit at half time.
Recommendation: Buy DOUBLE DRAW at Lingfield
When you see a race in which BARDD is a 9-2 shot (the fixed odds price with Spreadex at the time of writing) then you know there must be value among his rivals, as the nine-year-old is 0-29 over hurdles/fences. However, selling him in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market is probably not the right option, as he often finishes second or third, finding little for pressure after travelling well. Playing him to finish second in straight forecasts is one angle, though I’d rather just support one of his rivals in the Spreadex fixed odds betting. PERCUSSION (7-4 with Spreadex at the time of writing) clocked a fast time according to Raceform when runner-up over course and distance on his chase debut in July and should have more to offer against some exposed rivals.
Recommendation: Back PERCUSSION in Southwell 12.25
Donald McCain had a couple of fancied horses beaten at the last Southwell jumps meeting, taking his record here since the beginning of 2013 to just three winners from 81 runners for a loss of £50.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 9.55). HEARTBREAK KID was beaten by 40 lengths the last time he raced on good ground and looks worth taking on despite a respectable third at Sedgefield on his comeback. I’ll be selling him in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose HEARTBREAK KID in Southwell 1.25
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