Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew shares his stats and systems-based bets below.
Andrew has been in good form this week and has five selections for the horse racing action at Exeter, Sandown and Newcastle on Friday December 3rd. Follow his tips on horse racing betting sites throughout the upcoming and hectic festive fixture list, and all year round:
GAOT (system – Harry Fry Exeter runners)
Harry Fry has a fine record at Exeter, scoring with 41 of his 128 runners (32% strike-rate) for a profit of £59.48 to a £1 level stake at SP. He has three runners today and GAOT looks especially interesting under top weight in a modest handicap hurdle. He allowed the winner to get first run when second of 18 over course and distance contest last time and it will be disappointing if he isn’t in the frame.
BUXTED TOO (system – last-time-out Newcastle frontrunners)
It’s very difficult to win from the front on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface, especially on the round course (1m2f+). Simply backing last-time-out Newcastle frontrunners on their next outing, whether that’s on the all-weather, Flat turf or over jumps, is a profitable exercise. Those who finished in the top four do especially well next time, winning 48 of their 201 starts (23.9%) for a profit of £85.20. BUXTED TOO was favourite for a 1m4f handicap at Newcastle last time, finishing fourth of six after making the running. That run was much better than it looked an he’s worth chancing on his hurdling debut.
HELIOS ALLEN (system – Nick Williams December runners)
This is the time of year to side with the Nick Williams yard and backing his runners blind in December would have found 56 winners from 274 runners this century (20.4%) for a profit of £72.42 to the usual £1 stake. HELIOS ALLEN bolted up at 18-1 on his handicap debut at Chepstow last time and can follow up.
L’AIR DU VENT (system – Colin Tizzard handicappers)
The Colin Tizzard stable was under a cloud last season and, as a consequence of their horses underperforming, many of them are favourably handicapped at present. Since September 1st, had we backed all of the yard’s handicappers who were returning from a break of at least 150 days we’d have found seven winners from 31 runners for a profit of £36.00. L’AIR DU VENT won over a longer trip here at about this time last year and runs off a similar mark.
GIOIA CIECA (system – sire Kitten’s Joy at Newcastle)
Progeny of the sire Kitten’s Joy have a good record on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface, landing eight of their 29 starts (expected wins = 4.79) for a profit of £9.15 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who started in the front two in the betting were seven from 13 for a profit of £12.15. Current second favourite GIOIA CIECA won over trip and track in February and can defy an 85-day break.
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