Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew shares his unique system and stats-based selections below.
Andrew found an 11-4 winner and 7-1 (from 18-1) second from his two bets on Sunday and has three horse racing selections for Monday November 29th:
ZAMEKA (system – sire No Nay Never at Kempton, well drawn)
Roger Varian’s ZAMEKA could be worth a small interest despite never having seen a racecourse before. Well drawn in stall 2, the son of No Nay Never is bred to appreciate Kempton’s Polytrack. Backing all of his sire’s progeny at this venue would have returned a profit of £27.75 thanks to 14 winners from 84 runners (16.7% strike-rate) but those who were well drawn (stall 6 or lower) did even better, notching up 12 wins from 54 runners (22.2%) for a profit of £46.25.
CHANCE (system – first-time headgear, ridden by William Buick last time out)
Some jockeys not only perform well on the track but are invaluable when giving post-race feedback. My radio colleague James Millman (assistant trainer to his father Rod) always speaks highly of Oisin Murphy in this regard. William Buick, who just lost out to Murphy in his quest to be Champion Jockey this year, is another to have on your side as a punter. When a horse that Buick rode last time out rocks up in first-time headgear (having not worn any headgear the time before), they show a profit. Backing all the qualifiers, regardless of who rides them this time, would have found 62 winners from 377 bets (16.5%) for a profit of £28.38. That’s only 7.5% on turnover, but we can boost the figures if we only back those who’d had a relatively recent run (within eight weeks). This angle has produced 52 winners from 296 bets (17.6%) for a profit of £78.83 (+26.6%). CHANCE was only sixth of nine under Buick at Lingfield last time where a slow start but him at a disadvantage. He’s fitted with first-time cheekpieces today and he’s been dropped to a handicap mark of 92, 1lb below his last winning mark.
POMELO (system – Ralph Beckett with fillies in all-weather handicaps)
Since the beginning of 2010, Ralph Beckett has scored with 24 of the 87 fillies he’s run in all-weather handicaps (27.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £37.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 18.47). POMELO is two from two on good/faster turf or all-weather surfaces, including a course and distance novice win at this time last year. She’s not been seen since disappointing on her belated comeback at Royal Ascot but goes well fresh and this looks much easier. She can take a keen hold but there are two out-and-out pacesetters in opposition and the race should be run to suit, despite the small field.
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