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ITV Racing Tips & Trends | York Horse Racing Best Bets: Weds 11th May

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York horse racing tips

It’s day one of the Dante Festival at York racecourse this Wednesday and plenty to get excited about with the opening five races LIVE on ITV4. The Musidora Stakes (3:35) is one of the highlights – a race that 12 months ago produced the winner of the Epsom Oaks.

Andy Newton is on hand with all the ITV4 York races this Wednesday with key trends and tips.

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RELATED: York Races Today – See All Races at York Today: Betting, silks runners & riders


York Horse Racing Tips and Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m4f ITV4

  • 17/17 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
  • 16/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
  • 14/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 14/17 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
  • 12/17 – Winners from stall 5 or higher
  • 11/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
  • 11/17 – Rated between 80 and 93
  • 11/17 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
  • 11/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
  • 10/17 – Had won at least 3 times before
  • 9/17 – Had run at York before
  • 7/17 – Aged 5 years-old
  • 7/17 – Winning favourites
  • 0/17 – Winners from stall 1
  • 2021 Winner: Ilaraab (7/2 fav)

The William Haggas yard took this 12 months ago and look to have a big chance again this year with GAASSEE @ 13/8 with William Hill. This 4 year-old ticks the key weight, draw and age trends, – plus heads here at the top of his game after three straight wins – the last being an easy 5 length success at Kempton.

Of the rest, the CD winner Sam Cooke, the Queen’s Just Fine, with the in-form Ryan Moore riding and Godolphin’s Global Storm are others to respect. While Forza Orta needs to overcome stall one and we’ve not had a winner from that berth in the last 17 runnings.

But the danger can come from NOBEL MASQUERADE (e/w) @ 11/1 with William Hill., who was a good winner at Windsor last month and is only up 5lbs for that. William Buick rides.

2.25 – Churchill Tyres Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 6f ITV4

  • 17/19 – Aged 6 or younger
  • 17/19 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
  • 15/19 – Had run at York before (6 won at the track before)
  • 15/19 – Had won over this trip before
  • 12/19 – Carried 8-12 or MORE
  • 11/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
  • 9/19 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 9/19 – Won by a 4 year-old
  • 7/19 – Returned either 6/1 or 7/1 in the betting
  • 4/19 – Won their previous race
  • 1/19 – Winning outright favourite
  • 10 of the last 12 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
  • Trainer Richard Fahey won the race in 2018 and 2021
  • Trainer David O’Meara won the race in 2018 and 2015
  • 2021 Winner: Mr Lupton (14/1)

Horses drawn between 1-4 have struggled in recent years, so Wobwobwob (1), who won on this card last year, Count D’Orsay (2), Boogie Time (3) and Just Frank (4) have this to overcome.

CD winner Bergerac should not be far away after some solid runs this season, but the two I’m chancing in this competitive affair are NOMADIC EMPIRE @ 7/2 with William Hill. and last year’s winner MR LUPTON (e/w) @ 16/1 with William Hill..

Nomadic Empire is a proven CD winner at the track and hails from the Davis O’Meara yard that have won this twice since 2015. A recent third at Ripon would have blown away the cobwebs and with that also his first run back from being gelded can be expected to improve further based on that too.

Mr Lupton won this 12 months ago and is back on a 3lb lower mark. The Fahey camp have won two of the last three too and has Paul Hanagan riding, who was on his back last year too.

3.00 – 1895 Duke of York Clipper Logistics Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV4

  • 18/19 – Came from stall 9 or lower
  • 17/19 – Previous Listed or Group Three winners
  • 17/19 – Had won over 6f before
  • 14/19 – Had run at York before
  • 14/19 – Won by either a 4 or 5 year-old
  • 13/19 – Had a previous race that season
  • 13/19 – Came from stall 7 or lower
  • 10/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
  • 10/19 – Unplaced last time out
  • 7/19 – Won by the favourite5/19 – Won their last race
  • 5/19 – Had won a Group One race previously in their career
  • 2/19 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
  • 2021 Winner: Starman (5/1)

14 of the last 19 winners were aged 4 or 5, so the older horses in the race – Ejtilaab, Emaraaty Ana and Garrus – will have this to defy.

Horses drawn high don’t have a great record either with 18 of the last 19 coming from stalls 9 or lower. With this in mind, Dragon Symbol is feared from stall 4, but despite being the joint top-rated in the field is a horse that is now seven runs without a win.

The other joint top-rated is MINZAAL @ 5/2 with William Hill and he gets the call. Yes, he’s also not won for three runs, but the last of these was in the Group One Champions Sprint at Ascot and he’s also only had 6 career runs overall. He’s also a CD winner here when taking the Gimcrack Stakes 12 months ago and being another year older looks the sort to progress again this season.

Happy Romance (now a non-runner), who is also a proven course and distance winner can give the pick most to think about.

 

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3.35 – Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 1m2f88y ITV4

  • 18/19 – Had won a race before
  • 15/19 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
  • 14/19 – Had a previous run that season
  • 14/19 – Finished 4th or better last time
  • 12/19 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks
  • 8/19 – Won by the favourite
  • 8/19 – Won their previous race5/19 – Trained by John Gosden (5 of the last 11)
  • 4/19 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (3 of last 7)
  • 2/19 – Ridden by William Buick
  • 2/19 – Went onto win the Epsom Oaks (Sariska 2009, Snowfall 2021)
  • 0/19 – Had run at York before
  • 11 of the last 15 winners returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
  • Trainer Aidan O’Brien has only won the race once (2021)
  • 2021 Winner: Snowfall (14/1)

A shame we’ve just got the five runners here in a race that produced the Epsom Oaks winner last year. But there is every chance we could be seeing another winner of this Group Three heading to the Downs as the John Gosden runner – EMILY UPJOHN @ 4/6 with William Hill shot to the head of the Oaks betting @ 7/2 with William Hill after a cracking win at Sandown last month.

That came on only her second career run and first time upped in trip. Frankie, who has ridden 3 of the last 7 winners of this race, made no secret after the race that he liked this filly and despite this being a harder race is expected to go in again before heading to Epsom.

Godolphin’s Life Of Dreams can give the selection most to think about after a nice win on debut at Newbury, while you can’t ignore any Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore runner at the moment, so their The Algarve is sure to have some interest too.

4.10 – Paddy Power ‘Here For The Craic’ Handicap (Class 3) (3yo 0-95) 7f

10/10 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/10 – Won just once before
8/10 – Carried 9-1 or less
7/10 – Rated between 79-86
7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/10 – Winning favourites
6/10 – Drawn between stalls 4-7 (inc)
6/10 – Ran 4 or less times
5/10 – Won last time out
3/10 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/10 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
0/10 – Winners from stalls 1,2 or 3
2021 Winner: Wonwobwob (7/1)

Mojomaker, Fast And Loose and The Cookstown Cafu all have small claims, but this looks to be another for the John Gosden yard and Frankie Dettori – they team up with the unbeaten SAMBURU @ 6/5 with William Hill.

This 3 year-old kept on well over 7f last time at Salisbury, which was only his second career run and looks the type to certainly have a lot more to come having raced a tad green that day.

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York Horse Racing Times and Race Card: Weds 11th May 2022

  • 1:50 – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap Cl2 (4yo+) 1m4f ITV4
  • 2:25 – Churchill Tyres Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4
  • 3:00 – 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Logistics Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV4
  • 3:35 – Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (3yo) 1m2½f ITV4
  • 4:10 – Paddy Power ‘Here For The Craic’ Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-95) 7f ITV4
  • 4:45 – Conundrum HR Consulting Handicap Cl4 (4yo+ 0-85) 1m4f RTV
  • 5:15 – British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 5f RTV

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