Player transfer fees have soared to record levels over the last few years. Inflation has, of course, been a driving factor, but the clubs’ deeper pockets and higher ambitions have also been equally responsible. The top clubs in Europe do not hesitate to spend upward of $100 million these days, and we are afraid the trend will continue for the foreseeable future. On that note, we will take a look at some players who could go on to demand record transfer fees in the coming years.
Taking 6000 paying fee transactions into account, the CIES Football Observatory has developed a statistical model that can accurately predict the transfer fees clubs could pay for a player they desire. The model predicts the fees based on the money clubs have spent in the past on players of similar characteristics. Continue reading to meet the 10 players that have emerged as the most desirable as well as most expensive in CIES Football Observatory’s January rankings:
#10 Martin Odegaard (Arsenal): €150.6 million ($164.97 million)
Arsenal skipper Martin Odegaard has an estimated market valuation of €150.6 million ($164.97 million), making him the most valuable player over 25. The Norwegian attacking midfielder, who has been with Arsenal since initially joining them on loan from Real Madrid in January 2021, sees his contract expire in June 2028.
The 25-year-old has been in fine form for Mikel Arteta’s side this season. Playing 26 games in all competitions, he has scored seven times and provided four assists.
#9 Jamal Musiala (Bayern Munich): €152.4 million ($166.95 million)
Valued at a cool €152.4 million ($166.95 million), Bayern Munich ace Jamal Musiala is the most valuable player in the Bundesliga at the moment. The Germany international, turning 21 on February 26, will become a free agent in June 2026.
The man who scored the Bundesliga-winning goal for Bayern on the final Matchday of the 2022-23 season has been relatively quiet this term. He has featured in 18 games thus far across competitions, netting five times and claiming three assists.
#8 Julian Alvarez (Manchester City): €164.7 million ($182.42 million)
The only player in the world who can proudly flaunt FIFA’s World Champion badge for both club and country, Julian Alvarez is the eighth name in the rankings. The Manchester City forward’s estimated valuation sits at a whopping €164.7 million ($182.42 million), which makes him the most valuable Argentinian on the planet. Alvarez’s age and contract length at Manchester City have also contributed to his staggering valuation, with the 23-year-old’s deal not expiring until June 2028.
Alvarez, who has deputized for both Erling Haaland and Kevin De Bruyne in the 2023-24 season, has played 29 games across competitions, bagging 13 goals and 10 assists.
#7 Gavi (Barcelona): €175.4 million ($192.14 million)
Carrying a price tag of €175.4 million ($192.14 million), Gavi has emerged as the most valuable player at Barcelona. Aged 19 years, the Spaniard is also the youngest player on this list. The versatile central midfielder sees his Barca deal expire in June 2026.
Gavi suffered a season-ending ACL tear during international duty in November. Before the unfortunate incident, he looked to be in decent form, recording two goals and an assist in 15 matches for the Blaugrana in all competitions.
#6 Phil Foden (Manchester City): €195.8 million ($214.49 million)
One of Pep Guardiola’s favorite players, Manchester City star Phil Foden has an estimated market valuation of €195.8 million ($214.49 million). Effortlessly versatile, the 23-year-old sees his City deal expire in June 2027, but it will not be surprising if he signs another extension sooner rather than later.
The England international has been right on the money this season. Featuring in 30 games in all competitions for the English, European, and world champions, Foden has scored 11 goals and provided eight assists.
#5 Bukayo Saka (Arsenal): €223 million ($244.28 million)
Arsenal poster boy Bukayo Saka has secured the fifth spot on this list, courtesy of his lofty €223 million ($244.28 million) market valuation. The 22-year-old Arsenal academy graduate is set to stay with his boyhood club for the foreseeable future, as his current contract will not expire until June 2027.
Saka’s creative side has eclipsed his goalscoring prowess in 2023-24. The 32-capped England international has scored nine times and provided 12 assists in 27 games for the north London outfit this season.
#4 Rodrygo Goes (Real Madrid): €247.9 million ($271.56 million)
Real Madrid’s first representative on this list, Rodrygo Goes has an estimated market valuation of €247.9 million ($271.56 million). The 23-year-old has age on his side and is seen as an integral part of Los Blancos’ future. The Brazil international’s mega contract, which does not run out until June 2028, highlights his importance to the All-Whites.
Rodrygo endured a slow start to the 2023-24 season, but his last few outings have been quite impressive. Playing 26 games for the team in all competitions, he has scored 11 times and provided six assists.
#3 Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid): €250.3 million ($274.19 million)
Rodrygo compatriot and Real Madrid teammate Vinicius Junior is the most valuable winger on the planet, with him carrying a whopping €250.3 million ($274.19 million) price tag. Madrid, however, value him considerably more, setting his release clause at an eye-popping €1 billion ($1.1 billion). The 23-year-old is contractually tied to Los Blancos until June 2027.
The Brazilian powerhouse has missed a lot of games due to niggling injuries this season. Playing 14 games in all competitions, he has scored six times and provided four assists.
#2 Erling Haaland (Manchester City): €251.2 million ($275.18 million)
In second place we have Manchester City’s indomitable goalmachine, Erling Haaland. The Norwegian, who scored 44 goals for City in 2023, is currently valued at a massive €251.2 million ($275.18 million). The 23-year-old is set to remain with the UEFA Champions League holders until June 2027.
The most valuable player in the Premier League, Haaland has been in excellent form in the 2023-24 season. Participating in 22 matches in all competitions, he has netted 19 times and provided five assists.
#1 Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid): €267.5 Million ($293.03 million)
At the top sits Real Madrid’s summer signing Jude Bellingham, with the 20-year-old’s estimated market valuation standing at an eye-watering €267.5 Million ($293.03 million). The England international, who joined Madrid from Borussia Dortmund for €103 million ($112.78 million) in July, sees his contract expire in June 2029.
Bellingham has operated at the top of Carlo Ancelotti’s midfield diamond, which has allowed him to showcase his ruthless side. The ex-Birmingham City man has scored 13 times and provided two assists in 17 La Liga games, emerging as the division’s leading scorer. He has also been excellent in the UEFA Champions League, scoring four times and providing three assists in five outings.
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