Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew enjoyed an each-way return from SUNSET GLOW (2nd, 16-1) at Hamilton from his two bets on Tuesday and has four picks on Wednesday, June 29th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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MUSSELBURGH 1.40
GEORGIAVA (system – Havana Grey, 5f, turf)
Progeny of the sire Havana Grey have a 15 from 62 record when racing over 5f on turf for a profit of £42.29 to a £1 level stake at SP. No less than three of them do battle in this restricted maiden – GEORGIAVA, CUBAN ROCK and newcomer HABANA FLYER, with preference for the first-named who raced on the slowest part of the track when runner-up at Hamilton last time. She has the best of the draw in stall 8 of 8 and can get the better of stablemate Habana Flyer.
THIRSK 2.50
SHE’S A DEVA (system – Fountain Of Youth, turf, recent run)
Stall 8 of 16 wasn’t ideal for SHE’S A DEVA at Ripon last time where she did well to run third behind runners drawn 16 and 15. The badly-berthed fourth and fifth both placed on their next outings and Nigel Tinkler’s four-year-old can reward each-way support in this 6f handicap. She clocked a good time for her latest effort and the big field/strong pace will suit.
TIPPERARY 5.10
LADY TILBURY (system – Poorly drawn in the Queen Mary last time out)
High draws have dominated in the Queen Mary in recent years and those who were badly berthed – defined as being drawn in stall 12 or lower – often make good bets next time. Since 2017, 18 of the 56 qualifiers have won (32.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £25.17 to a £1 level stake at SP. LADY TILBURY ran a cracker on her debut when going down narrowly at 14-1 at Dundalk and won her next two starts on turf, including a course and distance Listed contest on fast ground from the same stall (2) as today. Stall 4 was no help when a highly-respectable 14-1 tenth of 21 to Dramatized in the Queen Mary (winner drawn 17) and she can bounce back.
KEMPTON 7.00
FREE SOLO (system – Showcasing, 6f-1m handicaps, finished fourth or worse last time out)
Progeny of the sire Showcasing have a great record on Polytrack, especially over trips of 6f-1m. The value angle is to back the handicappers who finished fourth or worse last time out, as they’re often underrated in the betting. This system has thrown up 46 winners from 382 bets for a profit of £127.96. FREE SOLO could surprise here and there are also qualifiers in the 8.00 (Top Exhibit) and 8.30 (Johnny Reb).
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