Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
It’s day two Chester’s May meeting and Andrew has one pick on the Roodee as well as three more over jumps at Huntingdon and Worcester on Thursday, May 5th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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WORCESTER 1.15
GO AS YOU PLEASE (system – J P McManus-owned low-grade jumps handicappers)
Since the beginning of this century, owner J P McManus is 110 from 496 with his Class 5 jumps handicappers in Britain (22.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £149.37 to a £1 level stake at SP. GO AS YOU PLEASE, forecast at 10-1, isn’t entirely straightforward but ran well at Market Rasen last time and might be able to sneak into the frame again.
HUNTINGDON 3.55
NAZWA (system – Oliver Sherwood, second run after a wind op)
Since wind operations had to be declared in early 2018, trainer Oliver Sherwood has a five from 31 with his runners on their second start following the surgery for a profit of £15.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who finished fourth or worse on their latest start were five from 22 (+£24.50). NAZWA was only beaten by a little over five lengths when fourth of seven at Warwick and is taken to build on that.
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CHESTER 4.15
CALIFORNIA GEM (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
Owners Amo Racing do well with their newcomers, scoring with 18 of the 80 qualifiers (22.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £23.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Only eleven of those were trained by George Boughey and five won for a profit of £8.88. CALIFORNA GEM, well drawn in stall 3, can be backed to make a winning debut for her in-form handler.
HUNTINGDON 4.30
LE GRAND LION (system – young chase debutants carrying top weight in a handicap, Class 4 or lower)
Horses aged seven or younger have a good record when asked to make their chase debut under top weight in a low-grade handicap chase, landing 126 of their 715 starts (17.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £47.46 to a £1 level stake at SP. From May to December only the strike-rate improves to 19.5% (109 winners from 558 runners) for a profit of £123.46. Ben Pauling’s LE GRAND LION won here over hurdles on his penultimate start and will appreciate any rain that falls ahead of his chase debut.
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