Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
The action steps up a gear on Thursday (May 26th) and Andrew has five selections on the Flat at Haydock, Ripon and Carlisle. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
VARDEN KITE (system – Ripon, second-time-out 2yos, debuted at Ripon)
The ridges/undulations of Ripon take some getting used to, especially for a two-year-old. Experience can be a potent weapon for a young horse and had we backed all second-time-out juveniles at Ripon, who also ran here on their debuts, we’d have won 17 of our 97 bets this century and made a profit of £31.30 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those beaten by less than ten lengths on their debuts were 17 from 60 (+£68.30). VARDEN KITE, as big as 66-1 at the time of writing, might be one for handicaps further down the line, but Sam England’s filly showed promise on her debut, recovering from a slow start to finish less than seven lengths behind the winner in a 50-1 sixth of ten. The step up from 5f to 6f should suit and she might be able to sneak into the frame at an each-way price.
ROYAL DRESS (system – Night Of Thunder 2yos. 0-2 previous runs)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Night Of Thunder tend to be precocious and had we backed them on their first three outings we’d have won 38 of our 175 bets (21.7% strike-rate) and made a profit of £78.12 to a £1 level stake at SP. Night Of Thunder’s trainer Richard Hannon is four from nine with the sire’s progeny on their juvenile debuts (+£35.67) and can make it five from ten with ROYAL DRESS.
POETIKEL PIECE (system – Mayson, 5f-7f handicaps on turf, fresh)
Progeny of the sire Mayson have a solid record in handicaps over 5f-7f when returning from a break of at least six weeks, landing 35 of their 237 starts (14.8%) for a profit of £123.91 to the usual £1 stake (prior to yesterday’s racing). POETIKEL PIECE was only seventh at Catterick on her return to action last month but had the worst of the draw in stall 1 (the runners came stands’ side, favouring those drawn high). The step up to 6f could suit and she’s been freshened up by a 50-day break.
TUDOR QUEEN (system – Kevin Ryan 3yos, first run after a wind operation)
In-form Kevin Ryan has a seven from 34 record with his three-year-olds returning from wind surgery and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £10.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. The fillies are three from nine (+£20.00) and it could be worth chancing TUDOR QUEEN, 14-1 at the time of writing, in this weak handicap.
SOL CAYO (system – James Horton turf runners, second or subsequent start)
Aside from racecourse debutants, trainer James Horton has form figures with his turf runners of 3511103132611 (6-13) for a profit of £33.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. SOL CAYO shaped as though a stiffer test of stamina were needed when third in a 5.5f Wetherby maiden last time and can get off the mark over this stiff 6f.
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