Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…
Andrew returns from his holiday with seven bets at Newmarket, Bangor, Chelmsford, Uttoxeter, Thirsk and Doncaster on a very busy Saturday (May 14th). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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NEWMARKET 1.50
GROUNDBREAKER (system – Andrew Balding, won or beaten less than 3L in first-time hood on latest outing)
Andrew Balding hasn’t got a great record when fitting one of his runners with a first-time hood but if they win or go down relatively narrowly (beaten by three lengths or less), they make good bets on their next start, regardless of whether the headgear was retained or not. Twelve of the 37 qualifiers have proved successful (32.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £5.07 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s not a huge return but 16 of the 25 beaten horses made the frame and GROUNDBREAKER became a rare first-time-hooded winner for the yard when landing a Doncaster maiden on his reappearance and might be able to grab the favoured rail if ridden prominently once more.
BANGOR 2.15
BLAKENEY POINT (system – Donald McCain, handicap hurdles at Bangor)
Since the beginning of 2011, Donald McCain has a 50 from 244 record with his handicap hurdlers at Bangor, one of his local tracks, for a profit of £92.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those returning after a recent outing (1-28 days) were 36 from 112 (32.1%) for a profit of £126.32. BLAKENEY POINT could go well at a big price here.
THIRSK 2.55
VENTURA EXPRESS (system – Mayson sprint handicappers, fresh)
Progeny of the sire Mayson have a good record in sprint handicaps (5f-6f) on turf when fresh (after a break of at least six weeks), landing 29 of their 186 starts (15.6%) for a profit of £113.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. I highlighted the claims of 13-2 Newmarket winner Blackrod on this angle at the end of last month and VENTURA EXPRESS, a winner on his reappearance last term, can defy a 239-day break.
BANGOR 4.00
INTO THE SUNSET (system – Donald McCain, handicap hurdles at Bangor)
INTO THE SUNSET is a qualifier on the same trainer angle as Blakeney Point (see Bangor 2.15) and looks very interesting on his handicap debut. He could only finish a 28-length fifth at Ludlow last time but was 40-1 on his stable debut and was returning from a break. He’s likely to do much better today.
CHELMSFORD 5.30
ON THE NOSE (system – Gary Moore, first-time blinkers)
Gary Moore inmates often improve for the addition of first-time blinkers, landing 19 of their 114 starts in the past ten years for a profit of £61.78. ON THE NOSE has struggled to get competitive in three previous runs for the yard but she’s worth chancing at huge odds.
UTTOXETER 5.50
TIME LEADER (system – Tom Lacey, first-time cheekpieces)
In-form handler Tom Lacey has a great recent record when using first-time cheekpieces, scoring with seven of the 21 qualifiers since the beginning of 2020 for a profit of £25.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. TIME LEADER is by Scorpion, whose progeny often respond well to first-time cheekpieces, winning 10 of their 53 starts in handicap chases for a profit of £11.58.
DONCASTER 7.10
DOUBLE O (system – Amo Racing-owned newcomers)
I might sound like a stuck record with my use of this angle, as I seem to reel it out every few days, but it’s been paying dividends. Amo Racing-owned newcomers now have a 21 from 85 record (24.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £29.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected wins = 14.41). On turf in 2022, they have form figures of 12191166149647112211 (9-20) for a profit of £33.50. David Loughnane’s DOUBLE O can keep the ball rolling with victory in this 5f novice contest.
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Related
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