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Racing Tips: Andrew Mount’s Saturday Picks – April 16th

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Andrew Mount's

Leading racing advisor Andrew Mount’s is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook, the GG.co.uk website and a regular pundit on William Hill radio. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below…

Andrew has found a host of winners this week and he has six selections on Saturday, April 16th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:

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MUSSELBURGH 1.32

VALUE THEORY (system – Charlie & Mark Johnston, Musselburgh, early-season)

The Johnston yard has done well at this early Musselburgh meeting and had we backed all their course runners in April we’d have won ten of our 37 bets since 2016 for a profit of £20.13. That’s pretty impressive given that they are often have two or three runners in the same race. In 2015 this 7f handicap saw the six lowest drawn horses (in a field of 11) fill the first six places and, since then, the winners have been drawn 3, 2, 3 and 4. VALUE THEORY is nicely drawn in stall 2 and could be the answer to this year’s renewal.

 

CORK 2.25

ADMIRAL NELSON (system – Ger Lyons stable switchers, turf)

Ger Lyons does well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, especially when they make their stable debuts on turf. In the past ten years, 17 of the 42 qualifiers won (40.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £53.80 to a £1 level stake at SP. This system has already been a good friend to this column in 2022, with the latest two highlighted qualifiers both landing gambles. ADMIRAL NELSON makes his debut for Lyons in a very competitive contest but is worth a small interest at around the 8-1 mark.

 

MUSSELBURGH 3.14

ZERO TEN (system – jockey Benoit De La Sayette, handicaps)

Backing all of Benoit De La Sayette’s rides in handicaps would have found ten winners from 39 runners for a profit of £12.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. He rides ZERO TEN for Emmet Mullins, whose runners in British handicaps are eight from 31 for a profit of £47.73 (though that would have been a small loss but for the 50-1 Grand National success of Nobel Yeats). Zero Ten was last seen running fifth of 12 in Group 1 company at Longchamp and has obvious claims down in grade on his reappearance.

 

CORK 3.25

THUNDER KISS (system – sire Night Of Thunder, turf)

Simply backing all progeny of the sire Night Of Thunder on turf would have found 111 winners from 652 runners (17% strike-rate) for a profit of £31.89 to the usual £1 stake. The fillies are 55 from 308 (17.9%) for a profit of £75.70. THUNDER KISS, who scored on her reappearance last term and signed off with a Listed win at Naas, looks the obvious one in this 1m4f Listed fillies and mares contest. RUMBLES OF THUNDER qualifies on the same angle and could be the one for the forecast.

 

MUSSELBURGH 3.47

JUST DASHING (system – sire Ardad, 2yo newcomers)

Progeny of the sire Ardad have a good record on their juvenile debuts, winning ten of their 59 starts for a huge profit of £162.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. The Amo Racing-owned JUST DASHING looks a likely type on paper and can open her account at the first time of asking.

 

HAYDOCK 3.52

KAP AUTEUIL (system – time of year)

KAP AUTEUIL has a great record in handicaps, winning six of his 11 starts for a profit of £21.13. From late February to October, his handicap record reads 11111 (5-5). The drying ground is ideal and he can follow up last month’s comfortable Stratford success.

 

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