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ITV Racing Tips & Trends | York Horse Racing Best Bets: Fri 13th May



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As we head into the third and final day (Friday) at the Dante Festival at York we’ve another top afternoon of flat horse racing to enjoy. The ITV4 cameras are again on the Knavesmire to take in the first five races, including the Yorkshire Cup (3:35) – where all eyes will be on two-time winner Stradivarius.

It might be Friday 13th, but Andy Newton will be hoping for some nice winners at York and is on hand with all the ITV4 York races with key trends and tips.

Last Crusader (1st 15/2) was another top winner for this feature on Thursday.

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RELATED: York Races Today – See All Races at York Today: Betting, silks runners & riders

York Horse Racing Tips and Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Knights Solicitors EBF Stallions Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 5f ITV4

15/16 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
14/16 – Had won over 5f before
14/16 – Won by a horse foaled in February or later
14/16 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
13/16 – Had won between 1-2 times before
13/16 – Won last time out
12/16 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Winners from stall 9
6/16 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 6-11 (inc)
Richard Fahey has trained 2 of the last 10 winners
Michael Bell has trained 2 of the last 13 winners
2021 Winner: Nymphadora (13/2)

The Richard Hannon-trained MIAMI GIRL @ 7/2 with William Hill caught the eye on debut with a facile success at Newmarket 12 days ago. She bolted up by 5 1/2 lengths that day and showed bundles of speed. Despite wandering around that day and showing signs of greenness she could not have been more impressive and is taken to go in again.

Of the rest, Carmela, Fix You and Daytona Lady were also all nice winners on debut and could be anything, but with 10 of the last 12 winners coming between stalls 6 and 11, then BEAUTIFUL EYES (9) @ 12/1 with William Hill and YAHSAT (11) @ 13/2 with William Hill rate the value if you’re looking for something at bigger odds.

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2.25 – Oaks Farm Stables Fillies´ Stakes (The Michael Seely Memorial Stakes) (Listed) Cl1 1m ITV4

15/15 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
15/15 – Won between 1-2 times in the past
14/15 – Priced 15/2 or shorter
12/15 – Had won over at least 7f before
11/15 – Placed 5th or better last time out
10/15 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
8/15 – Horses from stall 1 placed
8/15 – Raced at either Newmarket (5) or Newbury (3) last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/15 – Ridden by James Doyle
2021 Winners: Primo Bacio (14/1)

With all of the last 15 winners coming from stalls 10 or lower, then this would be a negative for Scotch Mistress and No Nay Nicki. 11 of the last 15 winners were placed 5th or better last time too – most tick this trend, but Rishes Baar doesn’t.

PERFECT NEWS @ 7/2 with William Hill  sets a fair standard having aleady run well at G3 level, so this drop back into a Listed race will suit and returned last month with a fine 4th in the Nell Gwyn and the form of that race has been given a big boost with the winner – Cachet – since winning the 1000 Guineas.

The dangers can come from Grande Dame with Frankie and Gosden teaming up and this filly was a good winner on debut at Ascot, plus holds a G1 Coronation Stakes entry too. Fonteyn, with Andrea Atzeni riding (3 wins in this race since 2014), Honey Sweet and Girls On Film are others to respect.

But at a bigger price the Hugo Palmer runner – ARION (e/w) @ 18/1 with William Hill  – is worth a saver too after clearly not staying 1m2f last time – therefore, the drop back to a mile will help. James Doyle rides and has ridden two of the last six runnings of this race.

3.00 – Paddy Power ‘I Love Steak’ Stakes Handicap Cl2 1m2f88y ITV4

19/19 – Aged 7 or younger
18/19 – Had run over 1m2f before
16/19 – Didn’t win their last race
15/19 – Came from stall 5 or higher
15/19 – Won over at least 1m2f before
14/19 – Carried 8-11 or MORE
12/19 – Had a previous run that season
11/19 – Won by a 4 year-old (including 8 of the last 13 years)
9/19 – Finished third or better last time out
6/19 – Had run at York before
6/19 – Won by the favourite
13 of the last 15 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
2021 Winner: UAE Prince (5/1)

All of the last 19 winners were aged 7 or younger, so that would mean the only 8 year-old in the race – What’s The Story – having this to overcome.

15 of the last 19 winners came from stalls 5 or higher too, so those drawn low here Love Is Golden (1), Bollin Joan (2), What’s The Story (3) and Spirit Dancer (4) have this as a negative.

Not winning last time and carrying 8-11 or more are other key trends to note. With that in mind, the Tom Clover runner – ROGUE BEAR @ 9/4 with William Hill – ticks a lot of boxes. This 4 year-old is drawn 5 and has already run two decent races this season – third both times – including in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster at the end of March.

Up just 2lbs for those runs here and having run on well both times over a mile this step up to 1m2f looks a top move.

Of the rest, Belloccio, Cockalorum and Miramichi have the form to go well, but a chance is also taken on SUMMA PETO (e/w) @ 12/1 with William Hill. Second runner in the race for trainer Keith Dalgleish and progressed well last year to win three times. Has gone well fresh in the past too so the 169-day break is also fine.

3.35 – Paddy Power Yorkshire Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 1m6f ITV4

17/17 – Came from stall 7 or lower
16/17 – Didn’t win last time out
16/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
16/17 – Had won over at least 1m4f before
16/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Aged 5 or older
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/17 – Had won at least 4 times before
12/17 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
9/17 – Had run at York before
8/17 – Horses from stall 7 placed in the top 3
7/17 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
7/17 – Came from stall 4 or 7
7/17 – Winning favourites
4/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never won this race
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute has won 3 of the last 7
Trainer John Gosden has won 2 of the last 3
Stradivarius has won 2 of the last 3 runnings
2021 Winner: Spanish Mission (11/2)

Only the five runners here, which is a bit of a shame but when one of those runners is the two-time Yorkshire Cup winner – STRADIVARIUS @ 6/5 with William Hill – then all is not lost.

There was talk of retiring this John Gosden-trained 8 year-old after running third at Ascot on Champions Day back in October, but the good news for racing fans is that connections have decided to keep him going for one more season.

He also returns to York racecourse and despite notching big wins at Goodwood, Doncaster and Ascot over his career, it’s at York that he’s 5-from-5 at and never tasted defeat.

It will be an emotional season for his regular rider – Frankie Dettori – as connections aim to take him back to all his old haunts and this is likely to be his last run here at York.

He’s rated 118 and the top-rated in the field but also has to give 3lbs and 6lbs away to the others. He does tick most of the main trends like having not won last time out, track form, wins and being placed in the top 4 last time out. However, those against him will look at his age (8) as the negative with 12 of the last 17 winners aged between 5-7 years-old.

Of the others, the 4 year-old Tashkhan will have that same age trend to overcome at the other end of the spectrum and with 14 of the last 17 winners placed in the top 4 last time out a recent 5th at Ascot in the Sagaro Stakes would also be a negative.

The Irish raider – Search For A Song – gets a handy 6lbs of Stradivarius and has decent form in and around this level in these cup races. A recent run at Navan (2nd) will have Dermot Weld’s 6 year-old ready for this and he’s a course winner here at York too. The niggle with him is that he’s only won one of his last 7 races.

Course winner – Thunderous – is rated 10lbs lower than Stradivarius but only gets 3lbs off him so has a bit to find, so of the rest the Ralph Beckett-trained MAX VEGA @ 11/1 with William Hill might be the one to give Strady the most to think about. He was a good G3 winner last time at Newbury when taking the John Porter Stakes over 1m4f and looks worth another crack up in trip.

He’s still only 5 years-old so could have more to offer and with the 3lbs he gets off Strady is rated only 5lbs inferior. Rob Hornby, who rode last time, remains in the saddle.

4.10 – Paddy Power ‘Fill Thi Boots’ Handicap (Class 3) 3yo 0-90 1m4f ITV4

9/9 – Carried 9-0 or more in weight
7/9 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Drawn between stalls 2-7 (inc)
4/9 – Trained by Mark Johnston (last 3 runnings)
4/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Ridden by William Buick
Trainer Charlie Appleby has a 28% record with his 3 year-olds at the track

Godolphin have a decent hand here with recent winners – Wild Crusade and New Comedy – in the race. Frankie rides the unbeaten New Comedy for his old bosses too so is sure to be popular, but with James Doyle likely to have had the pick his ride – Wild Crusade – can come out on top of their runners.

But it’s a race the Mark Johnston yard have won for the last three years and the mean business again with three runners – PONS AELIUS (e/w) @ 10/1 with William Hill , Super Stars and Achnamara. Of their trio, Pons Aelius looks the most likely winner having won his last two and was impressive the last day at Wolverhampton when going in by 4 lengths.

Switching to the grass here will be fine as has only had two runs on the turf – one of those came on soft ground and the other on debut over a mile.

Al Qareem and Speycaster are others to note, but if the prices allow there is no harm having all the Mark Johnston runners onside here with his top recent record in the race – SUPER STARS @ 16/1 with William Hill  and ACHNAMARA @ 20/1 with William Hill .

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York Horse Racing Times and Race Card: Friday 13th May 2022

  • 1:50 Knights Solicitors British EBF Marygate Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) (IRE Incentive Race) Cl1 (2yo) 5f ITV4
  • 2:25 Oaks Farm Stables Fillies’ Stakes (The Michael Seely Memorial Fillies’ Stakes) (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m ITV4
  • 3:00 Paddy Power “I Love Steak” Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-100) 1m2½f ITV4
  • 3:35 Paddy Power Yorkshire Cup Stakes (Group 2) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4
  • 4:10 Paddy Power “Fill Thi Boots” Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-90) 1m4f ITV4
  • 4:45 Yorkshire Equine Practice Handicap Cl4 (3yo+ 0-85) 7f RTV
  • 5:20 Longines Irish Champions Weekend Handicap Cl3 (3yo 0-95) 5f RTV

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